[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151138
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
Subsiding NW swell will remain large enough to sustain 12 to 15 ft
seas north of 23N between 35W and 44W this morning. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds are also found within this area. This swell
is going to subside further this afternoon, and allow seas to drop
below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A cold front reaches southwestward from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas. It will gradually push
southeastward across the Gulf through Tue night. Northerly winds
behind it will reach strong to gale force over the west-central
and southwestern Gulf Tue and Tue night. Once this front has moved
southeast of the region on Wed, both winds and seas will steadily
subside. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Sierra
Leone coast, then extends west-southwestward to 05N26W. An ITCZ
continues from 05N26W across 04N35W to north of Belem, Brazil at
01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the
trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near and up to 140 nm north of the ITCZ west
of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
a Gale Warning.

A weak warm front runs westward from the Great Bahama Bank across
the southeastern Gulf. Patchy showers are found near and up to
120 nm north of this feature. Meanwhile, a cold front reaches
southwestward from a 1017 mb low over New Orleans, Louisiana to
near Brownsville, Texas. Widely scattered showers are present
across the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft dominate waters behind this cold front. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually push southeastward
across the Gulf through Tue night. A weak low pressure will form
along this front over the central Gulf, and track northeastward.
In response, strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas
will follow this frontal system across the Gulf late tonight
through Wed. Winds will reach gale force over the far west-central
and southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue
night. Looking ahead, another front will enter the northern Gulf
Fri and move southward across the Gulf through late Fri night into
early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1022 mb high to the northeast near 28N61W will continue to
support a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea.
Convergent trade winds are triggering widely scattered showers
from the northwestern basin across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica
to the eastern basin. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and
seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin, north of
Colombia. Fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted for the
north-central basin, including near the Windward Passage. Gentle
to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the
northwestern basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and
4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the 1022 mb high will support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the central and eastern basins
from tonight through Fri. These winds off northwestern Colombia
will pulse to near-gale force during the nights, possibly reaching
gale-force Wed night. This same high will also cause fresh to
locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the
Lesser Antilles through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
Significant Swell in the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast of
Bermuda across 31N64W to the Great Bahama Bank. Patchy showers are
found near and up to 140 nm northwest of this boundary. A cold
front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N25W to
19N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to
80 nm east of this front east of 30W. West of 30W, widely
scattered showers are seen near and up to 50 nm south of this
front. Farther east, a stationary front runs southward from near
Madeira across the Canary Islands to 22N24W. Patchy rain are
present up to 80 nm along either side of this feature. In
addition, strong mid to upper-level winds are streaming thick
cirrus across the eastern Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands
northeastward to beyond the Canary Islands. Convergent trade winds
are generating widely scattered showers east of the Lesser
Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special
Features section, moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas at 8 to
11 ft are evident from 20N to 23N between 35W and 45W, and also
north of 23N between 45W and 52W. To the west, gentle winds and 4
to 6 ft seas in moderate mixed swells are noted north of 24N
between 52W and 75W, and also across the northeast Florida
offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft exist across the Bahamas, and north of the Greater
Antilles. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh
N to ENE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell
prevails.

For the forecast, the portion of the aforementioned stationary
front north of 27N will resume moving eastward as a cold front.
High pressure building southeast of Bermuda is going to keep fresh
winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas,
Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of this week. Meanwhile,
another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and
reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed, causing winds and
seas to build north of 27N and east 75W.

$$

Chan
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