[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The surface pressure gradient
between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in
Colombia and in Panama will support pulsing winds to minimal
gale force within about 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Tuesday
night. Seas will range from 8-11 ft due to strong to gale force
winds in the area.

Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Subsiding NW swell is behind
a cold front stretching from 31N21W to 17N 50W. Seas are 12 to
16 ft seas north of 22N between 25W and 44W. Strong to near gale
force W winds are noted behind the front north of 26N between
22W and 35W, where the highest seas are noted. Elsewhere behind
the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds are north of 22N
between 20W and 40W. This swell will subside further this
afternoon and allow seas to drop below 12 ft. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front reaches southwestward
from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to NE Mexico. A 1012 mb low
has formed along this boundary near 28N94W. Strong to near gale
force N winds are currently behind the front offshore TX and NE
Mexico. Gale force northerly winds are expected to begin tonight
offshore TX and western LA. Gales and rough seas in the wake of
the front will begin over the west-central and SW parts of the
Gulf Tue and Tue night. The front will gradually push
southeastward across the Gulf through Tue night as the low
pressure center lifts and moves eastward. Once this front has
moved southeast of the region on Wed, both winds and seas will
steadily subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then extends west-southwestward to
01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 04N40W and to 02N50W.
No significant convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
a cold front associated with a Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

Outside of the winds behind the frontal boundary mentioned in
the special features section, moderate easterly to southeasterly
winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico basin.
Recent buoy observations note seas of 3 to 4 ft across the
basin. Abundant moisture from the southerly flow ahead of the
front is reaching the cooler shelf waters offshore W Florida
resulting in the formation of dense fog with visibility below 1
nm for tonight through late tomorrow morning.

For the forecast, the front mentioned in the special features
sections will exit the Gulf region on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, clearing out any marine fog. The next cold front will
enter the NW Gulf late on Thursday and move southward across the
basin through late Friday night into early Saturday morning,
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
a Gale Warning for the Colombian basin.

A 1024 mb high to the northeast near 27N57W will continue to
support a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. A
recent scatterometer and altimeter pass reveals fresh to strong
ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are evident at the
south-central basin, north of 10N. Fresh to locally strong E
winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are noted across the central basin
between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are over the
eastern basin, and moderate winds are noted over the NW basin
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the basin combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough
seas across the east and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off
northwestern Colombia will pulse to minimal gale force during the
nights through Wed night. This same high will also cause fresh to
locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of
the Lesser Antilles through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
Significant Swell event in the eastern Atlantic.

A weak cold front stretches from 31N60W to 27N70W where the
boundary transitions to a warm front extending west to the
central Florida coast. A recent scatterometer pass reveals
moderate to fresh SE winds south of the warm front over the
Greater Antilles. Other than some isolated thunderstorms along
the warm front offshore Florida, no significant convection is
noted at this time. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft west of 55W.

Outside the winds supporting the significant swell area
mentioned in the Special Features section, winds are moderate
surrounding a high pressure center located near 27N57W. Moderate
to rough northerly swell continues across the central Atlantic
north of the cold front between 44W and 60W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure of South America supports
fresh trade winds south of 20N and west of 45W, where seas are 6
to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue to lift northward
ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the NE Florida
coast on Tue. This new front will reach from 31N72W to the NW
Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed, and from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas by Wed evening, then stall over the central
Bahamas on Thu. High pressure building E of the front is going to
keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast
Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Leeward Islands for most of this
week.

$$

Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net