[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
Recent scatterometer data depicted strong NW and SW winds
around an occluded low pressure system of 1001 mb located N of
the forecast region near 31.5N34W. Strong W to NW winds are
noted from 23N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Combined with wind
waves, seas within these winds range from 15 to 17 ft. A cold
front is associated with this low and extends from 31N26W to
20N41W to 20N55W. A large area of 12 to 17 ft in NW swell
follows the front covering the waters N of 24N E of 46W. Over
the next 24 hours, the low pressure will move eastward. Winds
are forecast to continue to diminish, but a large area of fresh
to strong NW winds will persist with seas 12 ft or greater
dominating the waters N of 24N and E of 46W. The swell event
will continue to propagate southward across the waters E of 50W
through Mon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by early
Mon afternoon.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A frontal boundary is stalled along the Texas coast. This front
will continue to stall through Mon morning before pushing
southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. Weak low
pressure will form along this front over the central Gulf and
track northeastward. In response, strong to gale force northerly
winds and rough seas will follow this cold front across the NW
Gulf on Tue morning, ending by Tue afternoon. Rough seas will
build across the NW Gulf on Tue and subside by early Wed
morning. Meanwhile, gale force winds will also develop along the
coast of Tampico and Veracruz by Tue afternoon as the front
pushes south of these areas. Winds will quickly diminish below
gale force near Tampico by Tue evening, and diminish near
Veracruz by Tue night into early Wed morning. Seas will build to
near 14 ft in the SW Gulf Tue through Tue night, subsiding by
Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07.5N13W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from
05N23W to 04N36W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 06N between 11W and 19W and from 01N to 05N
between 42.5W and 49.5W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front is along the coast of Texas with a 1017 mb
low pressure located near Cameron, Louisiana. Moderate NE winds
are noted behind the front. High pressure of 1023 mb over the
eastern Atlantic dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters.
Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate E winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft prevail N of 27N while moderate to locally fresh E
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen S of 27N.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending across the
Yucatan Channel will lift north as a dissipating warm front over
the eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary will
stall just off the Texas coast through Mon morning before
pushing southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon.
Weak low pressure will form along this front over the central
Gulf, and track northeastward. In response, strong to near-gale
northerly winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system
across the Gulf late Mon night through Wed. Winds will reach
gale force over the far west-central and southwestern Gulf along
the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night. Looking ahead, another
front will move into the northern Gulf Fri and move across the
Gulf through late Fri night into early Sat morning, followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends over the Yucatan Peninsula. High
pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low supports
moderate to fresh trades over most of the east and central
Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW
Caribbean E of the above mentioned stationary front. Seas are
generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia
and 4 to 5 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front across the
Yucatan Channel and Peninsula will lift north of the region as a
warm front on Mon. High pressure building north of the front
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across
the central and eastern basin from tonight through Thu. These
winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to near-gale force
during the nights, possibly reaching gale-force Wed night.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel
on Wed and stall into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the Significant Swell Event over the Central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N64W to 27N72W where it becomes
stationary, then continues SW across the Yucatan Peninsula.
Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers are noted behind the
front. Gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the
wake of the front. As previously mentioned, another cold front
extends from 31N26W to 20N41W to 20N55W. A line of strong
convection is just ahead of the front N of 22N to 31W. Showers
and thunderstorms are also noted behind the front N of 26N and E
of 35W. Strong winds and a significant swell event follow the
front. Please read the Special Features section above for more
details. Farther east, a stationary front stretches from the
Madeira Islands to the western Canary Islands to 22N24W. A
surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and runs from
23.5N15.5W to 15N19W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft dominates most the
waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and E of 35W.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N64W to 27N72W,
then continues as a stationary front across the northwest
Bahamas to the Florida Straits. The cold front will continue
eastward into the central Atlantic through Tue, while the
stationary front will lift north as a dissipating warm front
Mon. High pressure building southeast of Bermuda is going to
bring increasing winds and seas near the southeast Bahamas,
Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands Mon night through Wed.
Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida
coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed,
causing winds and seas to build north of 27N and east 75W.

$$
KRV
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