[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
Earlier scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of gale- force
winds SW of an occluded low pressure system of 1000 mb located N
of the forecast region near 31N38W. Strong to gale- force W to NW
winds are noted from 24N to 31N between 36W and 40W. Combined with
wind waves, seas within these winds range from 15 to 18 ft. A cold
front is associated with this low and extends from 31N30W to
20N45W to 21N54W. A large area of 12 to 18 ft in NW swell follows
the front covering the waters N of 25N E of 47W. Over the next 24
hours, the low pressure will move eastward. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force in a few hours, but a large area of
fresh to strong NW winds will persist with seas 12 ft or greater
dominating the waters N of 24N and E of 46W. The swell event will
continue to propagate southward across the waters E of 50W tonight
and Mon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by early Mon
afternoon.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A frontal boundary will stall along the Texas coast tonight
through Mon morning before pushing southeastward as a cold front
starting Mon afternoon. Weak low pressure will form along this
front over the central Gulf and track northeastward. In response,
strong to gale force northerly winds and rough seas will follow
this cold front across the NW Gulf on Tue morning, ending by Tue
afternoon. Rough seas will build across the NW Gulf on Tue and
subside by early Wed morning. Meanwhile, gale force winds will
also develop along the coast of Tampico and Veracruz by Tue
afternoon as the front pushes south of these areas. Winds will
quickly diminish below gale force near Tampico by Tue evening, and
diminish near Veracruz by Tue night into early Wed morning. Seas
will build to near 14 ft in the SW Gulf Tue through Tue night,
subsiding by Wed niportion of the cold front extending off the
Florida coast  from near Bermuda to 28N72W, then stationary to
the Florida Straits. The ght.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W
to 02N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 06N between 11W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front is along the coast of Texas with a 1019 mb low
pressure located near the Galveston/Houston area. Moderate NE
winds are noted behind the front. High pressure of 1024 mb over SW
Georgia dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Under this
weather pattern, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft prevail N of 27N while moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen S of 27N. An area of moderate
to fresh NE with seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the waters S of 24N
between 84W and 89W, including the Yucatan Channel, where a
stationary front is analyzed. Strong winds aloft, associated with
a subtropical jet stream branch, are advecting abundant tropical
moisture from central Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and into
north and central Florida. This pattern is favorable for
generating areas of rain with embedded showers.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending across the
Yucatan Channel will lift north as a dissipating warm front over
the eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary will
stall along the Texas coast tonight through Mon morning before
pushing southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. Weak
low pressure will form along this front over the central Gulf,
and track northeastward. In response, strong to near-gale
northerly winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system
across the Gulf late Tue through Wed. Winds may reach gale force
over the far west-central and southwestern Gulf along the coast of
Mexico Tue and Tue night. Looking ahead, another front will move
into the northern Gulf Fri and move across the Gulf through late
Fri night into early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends over the Yucatan Peninsula. Low level
clouds with some shower activity is associated with the front, but
mainly over the Yucatan Channel. Patches of low level clouds with
embedded showers are noted elsewhere across the basin. High
pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low supports
moderate to fresh trades over most of the east and central
Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean E of
the above mentioned stationary front. Seas are generally 3 to 5
ft, except 6 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia and 4 to 6 ft in
the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
north of the region as a warm front on Mon. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across mainly the central basin from tonight through
midweek. These winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to near-
gale force during the nights, possibly reaching minimal gale-
force Wed night. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel on Wed and stall into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to near 28N72W where it
becomes stationary, then continues SW across the Yucatan Peninsula.
Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and isolated
thunderstorms, is noted behind the front. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are in the wake of the
front. As previously mentioned, another cold front extends from
31N30W to 20N45W to 21N54W. A band of showers and thunderstorms
is just ahead of the front N of 21N to 24W. Showers and
thunderstorms are also noted behind the front N of 26N and E of
36W. Strong to gale- force winds and a significant swell event
follow the front. Please read the Special Features section above
for more details. Farther east, a cold front stretches from the
Madeira Islands to the western Canary Islands to 23N24W. An
earlier altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 to 12 ft behind this
front. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and runs
from 25N18W to 14N20W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft dominates most the
waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and E of 35W based on
altimeter data.

For the forecast, a portion of the front located off the Florida
coast, north of 28N and east of 70W, will continue east of the
area through Tue, while the southern portion west of 70W will lift
north as a dissipating warm front Mon. Looking ahead, another
front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach
from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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