[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of gale-force
winds SW of an occluded low pressure system of 1001 mb located N
of the forecast region near 32N37W. Strong to gale-force W to NW
winds are noted from 28N to 31N between 36W and 40W. Combined with
wind waves, seas within these winds range from 18 to 20 ft. A
cold front is associated with this low, and extends from 25N35W to
21N45W to 25N56W. A large area of 12 to 20 ft in NW swell follows
the front covering the waters N of 26N E of 48W. Over the next 24
hours, the low pressure will move eastward. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force late this afternoon, but a large area
of fresh to strong NW winds will persist with seas 12 ft or
greater dominating the waters N of 24N and E of 46W. The swell
event will continue to propagate southward across the waters E of
50W tonight and Mon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by
early Mon afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07.5N12W and continues SW to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N21W to 03N30W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 0 at n to 04N between 09W and 11W, and
from 02N to 04N between 18W and 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is along the coast of Texas with a 1018 mb low
pressure located near the Galveston/Houston area. High pressure
of 1024 mb over SW Georgia dominates the remainder of the Gulf
waters. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft  prevail N of 27N while moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of  4 to 6 ft  are seen S
of 27N, with the exception of SE winds over the NW Gulf ahead of
the cold front. An area of moderate to fresh NE with seas of 6
to 8 ft dominate the waters S of 24N between 84W and 89W,
including the Yucatan Channel, where a stationary front is
analyzed. Strong winds aloft, associated with a subtropical jet
stream branch, are advecting abundant tropical moisture from
central Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and into north and
central Florida. This pattern is favorable for generating areas
of rain with embedded showers.

For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas north of the
stationary front across the Yucatan Channel will linger over the
southeastern Gulf today. The stationary front will lift north as a
dissipating warm front over the eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile,
another frontal boundary will stall along the Texas coast tonight
through Mon morning before pushing southeastward as a cold front
starting Mon afternoon. A weak low pressure will form along this
front over the central Gulf, and track northeastward. In response,
strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas will follow
this frontal system across the Gulf late Tue through Wed. Winds
may reach gale force over the far west-central and southwestern
Gulf along the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night. A Gale Watch is
in effect along the coast of Texas from Brownsville to Galveston/
Houston area from late Mon night through Tue afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front crosses western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel,
then continues inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. Low level clouds
with some shower activity is associated with the front, but mainly
over the Yucatan Channel. Patches of low level clouds with embedded
showers are noted elsewhere across the basin. High pressure NE of
the area combined with the Colombian low supports moderate to
fresh trades over most of the east and central Caribbean, with
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean E of the above mentioned
stationary front. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 7 ft
in the Yucatan Channel and near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift
north of the region as a warm front on Mon. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across mainly the central Caribbean from tonight
through midweek. These winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse
to near-gale force during the nights, possibly reaching minimal
gale-force Wed night. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into
the Yucatan Channel on Wed and stall into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas
where it becomes stationary, then continues SW across western
Cuba. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and isolated
thunderstorms, is noted behind the front. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are in the wake of the
front. As previously mentioned, another cold front extends from
25N35W to 21N45W to 25N56W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
just ahead of the front N of 24N. Low level clouds and some
showers are elsewhere along the frontal boundary. Strong to gale-
force winds and a significant swell event follow the front. Please
read the Special Features section above for more details. Farther
east, a stationary front stretches from the Madeira Islands to
the western Canary Islands to 23N24W. An altimeter pass indicates
seas of 8 to 12 ft behind this front. A surface trough is analyzed
ahead of the front and runs from 25N18W to 13N20W. Seas of 8 to
12 ft dominates most the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and E
of 35W based on altimeter data.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas, where it becomes a stationary front into western
Cuba. The portion of the front north of 27N and east of 70W will
continue east of the area through Tue, while the southern portion
west of 70W will lift north as a dissipating warm front Mon.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late
Wed.

$$
GR
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