[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

A storm system that is to the north of 31N is
generating very large NW swell. Sea heights that are
higher than 12 feet cover the areas that are from
15N northward between 20W and 45W. The sea heights are
20 feet or higher from 30N northward between 25W and
38W. Rough seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean
between 31N50W 24N60W 08N60W and from 15N northward
from 20W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere.
The swell will subside gradually, with the sea
heights going to lower than 12 feet on Saturday night.
A cold front passes through 31N19W 28N20W 20N28W 15N40W.
A shear line continues from 15N40W to 15N50W and 18N61W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N northward
from 60W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches,
for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC are: 0.43 in
Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico
on Friday morning. Gale-force NW to N winds, and sea heights
will range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 19N to 28N between
95W and 98W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz
in Mexico. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and sea
heights from 8 feet to 9 feet, elsewhere from 21N to 31N
between 86W and 97W. The forecast for Friday night is for
the cold front to pass from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz
in Mexico. Expect NW to N gale-force winds, and sea heights
from 10 feet to 13 feet, 19N to 20N between 95W and 97W,
including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING in the METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE IRVING...

Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE,
in the western part of the marine zone IRVING, continuing
to 13/0000 UTC at least. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE
forecast for the IRVING marine zone, at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/bulletin/
WONT50_LFPW/20240111193859669345, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Liberia near 06N11W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N14W, to 05N20W 03N30W 03N38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 08N southward from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Slight to moderate seas are in the coastal waters
from Louisiana to NE Mexico. Slight seas are in the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force
E to SE winds are from 24N northward from 90W eastward.
Moderate and fresh SE winds are in the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Southerly winds will increase across the northern Gulf
overnight ahead of the next cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough
seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico
Fri night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat
and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Another front may
enter the northwestern Gulf early Mon, and move to southeast
of the Gulf by late Tue night, followed by fresh to strong
with locally near-gale northerly winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rough seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean
Sea, roughly about 210 nm off the coast of Colombia and
about 240 nm to the south of Jamaica. Moderate seas cover
the rest of the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica southward from
81W eastward. Slight seas are in the rest of the area.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the central one-
third of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the
eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to strong SE winds
are within 120 nm to the north of Honduras between 85W
and 87W. Fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 83W westward.
Moderate SE winds are in the remainder of the area that
is from 12N northward from 80W westward. Gentle winds
are from 12N southward from 80W westward.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches,
for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC are: 0.20 in
Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to
strong with locally near-gale trade winds and moderate to
rough seas across the central Caribbean into Fri. Winds and
seas will diminish over the central Caribbean by late Fri
as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of a cold front.
SE winds will increase along with building seas over the
northwestern Caribbean through Fri night ahead of the cold
front, which is expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel
Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may resume
Sun night into Mon as high pressure develops north of the
region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the forecast for the central Atlantic Ocean
the Significant Swell Event.

Fresh to moderate winds cover most of the areas that are
between 40W and 60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds
cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is to the south
and the southeast and away from the frontal boundary that
is related to the Significant Swell Event.

A cold front passes through 31N61W to 26N74W. The front
is stationary from 26N74W, to the NW Bahamas, through the
Straits of Florida, to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are within 160 nm to the north of the
front between 70W and the Bahamas. Fresh SW winds are within
100 nm on the southern side of the front between 60W and 65W.
Fresh SE winds are within 120 nm to the north of Hispaniola
between 70W and 72W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere
from 60W westward. Moderate seas are from 60W westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is to the north of 28N50W 26N65W 23N78W.

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda to 26N74W,
then continues as a stationary front across the northwest
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. As this front pushes
eastward through Fri afternoon, residual W swell will
persist near and ahead of the front over the waters southwest
of Bermuda, north of 29N and east 63W. Looking ahead,
SE winds will increase along with building seas off
NE Florida Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which
is expected to move off the NE Florida coast Fri night
into Sat morning. These winds will diminish through Sat
as the front reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with
rough seas lingering north of 27N. A third cold front
may move off the northeast coast Mon, followed by fresh
to strong NW winds and building seas north of 28N Tue.

$$

mt/pc
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