[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm system over the eastern
Atlantic N of the area is generating very large NW swell. Seas
greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of 18N between 20W and 45W,
peaking near 20 ft over the waters N of 28N between 31W and 37W.
The swell will gradually subside, with seas falling below 12 ft
Sat night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast into the Gulf Fri morning. Winds to gale force
and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Winds will diminish below gale force late Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W to 04N42W and to 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 08N between 10W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the western Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure of 1019 mb over northern Florida and its associated
ridge dominate the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas in the 2-4 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern
Gulf starting this evening ahead of the next cold front expected
to move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and
rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the
front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on
Mon, followed by strong winds over the western Gulf Mon night.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail in the south central
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the north central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are
in the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft over the
eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the
central Caribbean into Fri. Winds and seas will diminish over the
central Caribbean by late Fri as the high pressure shifts
eastward, ahead of a cold front. SE winds will increase along with
building seas over the northwest Caribbean tonight through Fri
night ahead of the cold front, which is expected to stall across
the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
winds may resume Sun night into Mon as high pressure develops
north of the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Feature section for details about the
ongoing significant swell event over the eastern Atlantic.

A frontal boundary is stalled from roughly Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida. Light to gentle winds are found W of the front, with
seas of 6-8 ft. Farther east, a 1025 mb high is centered near
29N51W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. A cold
front is farther east, extending from 31N20W to 22N26W to 16N42W.
Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front, N of 24N
between 20W and 44W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate most of the
remainder of the discussion area. Aside from the 12 ft seas
discussed in the Special Features section above, seas are in the
7-11 ft range E of 60W, and 5-8 ft W of 60W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the portion of the stalled front north
of 26N will be reinforced and move east of the area through Fri
night, while the southern portion lifts northward as a warm front
across the waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds
will increase along with building seas off NE Florida Fri night
ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the NE
Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will
diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western
Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A weak front may
move off the northeast coast Mon, followed by fresh to strong NW
winds and building seas north of 28N Tue.

$$
AL
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