[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm system outside of our
area is generating very large NW swell behind its associated cold
front that extends from 31N22W to 17N41W. These large swells are
found behind the front between 19W and 49.5W. Seas are currently
peaking at 23 ft. Seas will continue to exceed 12 ft through the
end of the week.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast into the Gulf Fri morning. Winds to gale force
and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Winds will diminish below gale force late Fri and below strong
force Sat afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 04N18.5W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N18.5W to 04N33W and to 01N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing within 150 nm either side of the
Monsoon/ITCZ axis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the western Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure of 1019 mb and its associated ridge dominate the
the sensible weather over the Gulf. Thus, winds are gentle to
moderate out of the SE to S and seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern
Gulf by this evening ahead of the next cold front expected to
move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and
rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the
front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on
Mon, followed by strong winds over the western Gulf Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure well to the
S of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America
support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and
moderate to fresh trades over the remainder eastern half of the
basin where seas remain in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate SE
winds are ongoing over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across the central Caribbean into Fri. SE winds will increase
along with building seas over the NW Caribbean Thu night through
Fri night ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the
Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds
are forecast to resume Sun into Mon night as high pressure
develops to the northeast of Puerto Rico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Feature section for details about the
ongoing significant swell event overt the eastern Atlantic.

Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of a cold front extending
from Bermuda to 31N67W where it stalls to the central Bahamas.
Seas to 9 ft are associated with the front, extending to 73W and N
of 28.5N. Gentle or weaker winds are present behind the front.
Surface high pressure of 1026 mb and associated ridging dominates
the central subtropical Atlantic waters. Over the eastern
Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 17N41W. Very large
swell continue behind this front. See the Special Features Section
for more details.

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal boundary is stalling from
roughly Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Large W swell persists
through the afternoon over the waters southwest of Bermuda, north
of 29N between 65W and 70W. The northern portion of the front
north of 26N will be reinforced today and continue to move east of
the area through Fri night, while the southern portion lifts
northward as a warm front across the waters west of 70W through
Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building
seas off NE Florida Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which
is expected to move off the NE Florida coast Fri night into Sat
morning. These winds will diminish through Sat as the front
reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering
north of 27N. A weak front may move off the northeast coast Mon.

$$
KRV
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