[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The associated pressure gradient between a
cold front extending from 31N22W to 17N42W and high pressure
centered to the SE of Bermuda will continue to support gale force
W to NW winds N of 29N between 35W and 42W through this morning.
However, large NW swell currently peaking at 23 ft, which has
been generated by the storm system associated with this front
will continue to exceed 12 ft through the end of the week.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast into the Gulf Fri morning. Winds to gale force
and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Winds will diminish below gale force late Fri and below strong
force Sat afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 04N17W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N32W and to 01N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing within 180 nm either side of the
Monsson/ITCZ axis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the western Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure of 1018 mb and its associated ridge dominate the
basin this morning, providing gentle to moderate SE to S winds and
seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern
Gulf late today ahead of the next cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas
will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from
Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front
shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on Mon,
followed by gale-force winds over the western Gulf Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure well to the
SE of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America
support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and
moderate to fresh trades over the remainder eastern half of the
basin where seas remain in the 5-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate SE
winds are ongoing over the NW Caribbean with 3-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a frontal trough extending from western Cuba to
the western Gulf of Honduras will dissipate this morning. High
pressure building in the wake of the frontal trough will support
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the
central Caribbean into Fri. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to
resume Sun into Mon night as high pressure develops to the NE of
Puerto Rico. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with
building seas over the NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri night
ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel
Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Feature section for details about the
central Atlantic gale warning and associated significant swell.

Fresh SW winds are ahead of a cold front extending from Bermuda
to 26N73W where it stalls and then continues to W Cuba. Rough seas
to 10 ft are associated with the front, extending to 75W and N of
the Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds are present behind the
front. Surface high pressure of 1027 mb and associated ridging
dominates the central subtropical Atlantic waters. Over the
eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N22W SW to 17N42W.
Gale force winds are between the ridge and the cold front. See the
Special Features Section for details.

For the forecast W of 55W, This large swell will linger north of
28N through tonight. The northern portion of the front N of 26N
will continue to move east of the area through Fri night, while
the southern portion lifts northward as a warm front across the
waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will
increase along with building seas off NE Florida Fri night ahead
of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the NE
Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will
diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western
Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A weak front may
move off the northeast coast Mon.

$$
Ramos
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