[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
Large NW swell generated by gale to strong gale winds related to a
981 mb low pressure southwest of the Azores are sustaining 12 to
20 ft seas north of 18N, between 35W and 45W. Fresh to strong NW
to N winds are seen within this same area. This low is expected to
remain quasi- stationary through this evening before moving
slowly eastward early Sat morning through Sat night. This should
allow seas to gradually subside while shifting eastward.
Anticipate seas to drop below 12 ft Sat night. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A cold front is about to exit the Texas coastline into the
northwestern Gulf this morning. As this front sinks southeastward
across the western Gulf this afternoon and evening, NW to N winds
behind it will increase to between near-gale to gale force. Seas
will peak at 8 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. This front is
going to move southeast of the Gulf late tonight, which will allow
winds across the west-central and southwest Gulf to decrease
below gale force late this evening. Seas will fall below 8 ft by
Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, in the marine
zone of IRVING, from 13/00Z to 13/12Z. Please refer to the METEO-
FRANCE High Seas Warning, at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of northern
Liberia, then reaches westward to 06N14W. An ITCZ continues
southwestward from 06N14W across 04N25W to 03N38W. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate convection is found up to 100 nm
along either side of these features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for more information
about a Gale Warning.

A cold front is along the eastern Texas coastline this morning.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm southeast of
the front. Strong to near-gale SW to W winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft are seen at the northwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong S winds and
5 to 7 ft seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist for the
west-central and southwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds with
3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, southerly winds will continue to increase
across the western Gulf today ahead of the cold front about to
enter the northwestern Gulf. Winds to gale force and rough seas
will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from
Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche tonight. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front
shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf. Another front may enter the northwestern Gulf
early Mon, and move to southeast of the Gulf by late Tue night,
followed by fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds
and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1022 mb high at the central Atlantic near 28N52W is supporting a
trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted at the south-central
basin, north of northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the northwestern basin, including the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, except light to
gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas near Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the 1022 mb high will prolong fresh to strong
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean this morning. Winds and seas will diminish this
afternoon and evening as the high shifts eastward, ahead of a cold
front. Fresh with locally strong SE winds and moderate seas over
the northwestern Caribbean will persist through tonight ahead of
this cold front, which is expected to weaken and stall across the
Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds
may resume across the central basin Sun night into Mon as high
pressure develops north of the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
a Significant Swell Event.

A stationary front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda
across 31N61W and the northwest Bahamas to the Florida Straits.
Scattered showers and evident along and up to 100 nm northwest of
this boundary. A cold front curves southwestward from west of
Madeira across 31N19W to 14N40W, then continues westward as a
shear line to east of the Leeward Islands at 17N60W. Patchy
showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side of these features.
Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection
from 03N to 07N between 38W and 47W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Significant Swell area, moderate to fresh N to ENE
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present from 05N to 17N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles, and also from 17N to 28N between 45W
and 55W. For the central Atlantic, a 1022 mb high near 28N52W is
supporting gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate mixed
swells north of 18N between 55W and 65W. To the west, gentle to
moderate E to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 20N
between 65W and the Florida/Georgia coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front is going to move eastward
again later this morning, keeping moderate to fresh W winds and
moderate seas north of 28N and east of 60W through this evening.
Increasing SE winds along with building seas are anticipated off
NE Florida this afternoon ahead of the next cold front, which
should move off the NE Florida coast tonight into Sat morning.
These winds will reach strong to near-gale force before
diminishing Sat afternoon as the front pushes eastward, reaching
from 31N70W to western Cuba. Rough seas will linger north of 29N
until late Sat night. Looking ahead, a third cold front may move
off the northeast Florida coast Mon night or Tue morning,
following by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas north of
28N by Tue afternoon.

$$

Chan
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