[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front passes through 31N73W, through the NW
Bahamas, beyond NW Cuba. Expect gale-force SW to W winds,
and very rough seas in S to SW swell, from 30N to 31N
between 69W and 78W. Expect strong to near gale-force
winds, and rough to very rough seas in SE to S swell,
elsewhere from 25N to 31N between 64W and 81W. Expect
fresh to strong SE winds, and rough seas in NE swell,
in the remainder of the area that is from 18N to 31N
between 62W and 81W. These conditions are forecast
to continue for the next 12 hours or so. Expect rough
seas in the aforementioned areas until Friday morning.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 10/1200 UTC are: 0.25 in Freeport in the
Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Precipitation: scattered
moderate, to isolated to widely scattered strong,
is from 27N northward between 56W and the cold front.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward
from 55W westward.

...EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL...

A cold front passes through 31N30W to 21N40W 19N50W. A
surface trough continues from 19N50W to 20N60W and 23N69W.
Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea heights that range
from 20 feet to 26 feet, from 26N to 31N between 35W
and 41W. The sea heights are 12 feet or higher to the
north of the frontal boundary from 70W eastward. Rough
seas are elsewhere nearly everywhere to the east and to
the southeast of frontal boundary. These conditions will
last for the next 24 hours or so. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm
to the east of the cold front from 27N northward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 17N northward from 60W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details about the three situations.

...THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE METEOR...

Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE,
until 11/0300 UTC. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE
forecast for the METEOR marine zone,
at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/
bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20240110100321878294, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Sierra Leone near 07N13W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N20W, to 05N27W 01N35W 03N40W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Rough seas cover the areas that reach from the coastal
waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, to the central Gulf,
to the NE corner of the area. Moderate seas cover much of
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The exception is for slight
seas in the waters that are off the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Strong to near gale-force NW winds were in the NE corner of
the area during the earlier morning hours. Those wind speeds
have slowed down with time. Moderate and fresh NW winds are
in the NE corner of the area now. Moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the area.

Winds have been diminishing across the Gulf as high
pressure builds over the western Gulf this morning following
a cold front that moved through the basin last night. Large
swell over the far eastern Gulf will subside this afternoon.
SE to S winds will increase over the northern Gulf by late
Thu ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the
Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas
will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches
from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun
as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high
pressure builds over the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rough seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean
Sea. Moderate seas cover most of the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. The exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters
from the border of Colombia and Panama, to Belize. Strong
E to SE winds are in the central sections of the area.
Fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate or slower winds are in the NW corner of the area.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area.

A cold front extending from western Cuba to off Belize will
become stationary and dissipate through tonight. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh
to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the
central Caribbean into Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will
increase along with building seas over the northwest
Caribbean Thu night and Fri ahead of a cold front expected
to stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the forecast for the waters that are to the east of
Florida; and for the central Atlantic Ocean gale-force winds
and the Significant Swell Event.

Gale force winds and very rough seas accompany a cold
front extending from 31N73W to western Cuba. Winds will diminish
through today as the main energy for the front lifts to the north
of the area. Large swell will linger north of 27N into Thu night.
The front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas tonight,
and stationary from there to western Cuba. The northern portion
of the front north of 27N will continue to move east of the area
through Fri night, while the southern portion lifts northward as
a
warm front across the waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking
ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas off
northeast Florida Fri night ahead of the next front, expected to
move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning.
These winds will diminish through Sat as the front reaches from
Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N.

$$
mt/ec
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