[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N75W to
23N82W. Gale force S winds of 30 to 40 kt extend E of the front
to 70W, mainly N of 29N. Gale force W winds of 30 to 35 kt extend
W of the front to 79.5W, mainly north of 30N. The front is
accompanied by a severe squall north of 29N. The squall line from
26.5N to 29N has weakened during the past 6 hours, but may still
have scattered gale force gusts. Gale force winds will continue
north of 29N between 69W and 79W through this morning, before
diminishing and moving N of the area this afternoon. Seas of 15 to
20 ft north of 29N will subside by tonight. The front will weaken
this evening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central
Bahamas. The squall line north of 29N will continue to contain
severe wind gusts through this morning, as it moves E, before
weakening significantly this afternoon.

Central and East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from
31N33W to 23N40W to 21N45W to 20N55W, then continues as a surface
trough to 22N67W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted along and within 90 nm east of the cold front, mainly N
of 27N. Gale force W to NW winds of 30 to 40 kt are occurring
north of 27N between 30W and 42W. Seas are 17 to 25 ft in this are
in large NW swell. The gale-force winds will slide eastward
through late today, reaching 25W and mainly north of 27N. Meteo
France has issued a Gale Warning for the Meteor marine zone
through 11/0000 UTC. An expansive area of 12 ft seas or greater
dominates the entire waters behind the front to 60W, with seas in
excess of 20 ft where the gales are occurring. Peak seas are
around 25 ft near 29N40W. This long period NW swell will cause
hazardous seas to spread further, with 12 ft seas or greater
reaching as far south as 15N and E of 50W by Thu. By late Friday,
the 12 to 20 ft seas will be confined to areas north of 19N and
east of 44W. The gales are forecast to end around midday Thu, but
a large area of strong winds will continue over the NE Atlantic
through Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details on gales east of 35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N19W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02.5N to 06N and between 16W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

As of 0900 UTC, the cold front has moved southeast of the basin. A
1018 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico
near 24N95W. Winds over the eastern Gulf have diminished to fresh,
with light to gentle winds in the western Gulf. Seas are still 12
to 14 ft across portions of the NE Gulf of Mexico in W swell, and
the 8 to 11 ft seas cover the waters elsewhere over the eastern
and central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas have
subsided to below 8 ft west of a line extending from 29N93W to
19N96W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this far western section of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds over the NE Gulf will diminish to
moderate or weaker around sunrise today. Seas in the eastern Gulf
will subside to below 12 ft late this morning, and to below 8 ft
by this evening. High pressure currently centered over the western
Gulf of Mexico will move E to the eastern Gulf tonight through
early Thu. SE to S winds gradually increase across the basin Thu
and Thu night as the next cold front approaches the coast of
Texas. This front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri
morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche by late Fri, and from Naples, FL to Cancun, Mexico early
Sat before weakening. Strong to near-gale force winds will follow
this front across the western and central Gulf of Mexico, possibly
reaching gale force over the far western Gulf Fri. Conditions
improve Sat night as high pressure builds over the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 7 to 10 ft seas cover the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea, mainly east of 79W. A weakening
cold front has entered the NW Caribbean from the western tip of
Cuba to Tulum, Mexico. Moderate N winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are
over the Yucatan Channel behind the front. Elsewhere in the NW
basin, moderate SSE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
ridging north of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia will
support strong winds across the central Caribbean through early
this morning. Winds over the most of the central Caribbean will
then diminish to fresh, although strong winds will continue to
pulse nightly near the coast of Colombia through the week. The
aforementioned cold front will dissipate late this afternoon as
it drifts SE. SE winds will increase to fresh to strong from the
Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel Thu night and early Fri as
the next cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will
slow down and weaken significantly as it approaches the Yucatan
Channel Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning offshore NE Florida and a Gale Warning in the
northern parts of the central and eastern basin.

A cold front extends from 31N75W to the Straits of Florida near
24N81W, as of 0900 UTC. For information on the gales and squall
line associated with this system, please see the Special Features
section above. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere
north of 25N and east of the front to 60W. Outside of the gale
winds, strong to near-gale force winds cover the area north of 26N
between 65W and the east coast of Florida. Seas of 8 to 20 ft
prevail across the area, except less than 8 ft between the Bahamas
and South Florida. Fresh winds are elsewhere across the entire
area east of 60W. A 1029 mb high pressure centered near 34N58W
extends a ridge southward to near 26N57W. Seas of 9 to 15 ft
cover this area between 53W and 63W.

Farther east, see the Special Features section above for
information on the cold front, gales and very large seas across
the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean. From the ITCZ to 18N,
between 40W and 62W, fresh trades with seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail
in N swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the squall line that has been
accompanying the cold front east of Florida will likely continue
to bring severe wind gusts through the morning hours today as it
moves E. Gale force winds will continue north of 29N between 69W
and 79W through this morning before diminishing and moving north
of the area this afternoon. The front will weaken this evening as
it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Elsewhere,
large northerly swell is occurring across the waters east of 65W,
with seas heights of 10 to 14 ft. The swell will gradually subside
over the next few days, and seas across the entire area will
subside significantly Thu into Thu night as high pressure builds
over the area. Southerly winds begin to increase off northeast
Florida Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. The
front is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early
Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western
Cuba by late Sat. Strong winds are expected on both sides of the
front N of 27N, along with building seas.

$$
Hagen
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