[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central and East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front generating
gales extends from 31N27W to 20N40W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm east of the front
and N of 28N. Near gale to gale force winds are on either side of
the front, N of 29N within 60 nm east of the front, and N of 27N
W of the front to 40W. Large NW swell has been generated from the
storm system associated with this front, with seas greater than 12
ft covering the waters N of 20N between 25W and 55W, peaking
around 26 ft. The winds will slowly diminish, falling below gale
force Thu. The large swell will slowly subside while propagating
eastward through the end of the week.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast into the Gulf of Mexico Fri morning. Winds to
gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western
Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico
Fri night. Winds will diminish below gale force by this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details on gales east of 35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07.5N12.5W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W
to 05N27W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 08N between 14W and 30W, and from 02N to 05N between 30W
and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Pleas see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on an upcoming gale
warning over the western Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1017 mb
high centered near 26N91W. Moderate to fresh southerly return
flow prevails over the waters W of 95W. Light winds are found near
the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in westerly swell E of
90W, and 4-6 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern
Gulf by late Thu ahead of the next cold front expected to move
off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough
seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches
from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front
shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on Mon,
followed by gale-force winds over the western Gulf Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from western Cuba to off Belize. Fresh
winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
winds over the eastern Caribbean, and light to gentle winds over
the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the frontal trough will dissipate through
tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the frontal trough
will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean into Fri. Looking ahead, SE
winds will increase along with building seas over the northwest
Caribbean Thu night and Fri ahead of a cold front expected to
stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
central Atlantic gale warning and associated significant swell.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to western Cuba. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm
east of the front N of 28N. Earlier gale force winds associated
with this front have lifted N of the area. Strong to near- gale
force winds continue N of 29N and E of the front to 60W. Moderate
to fresh winds are elsewhere E of the front to 60W. Gentle to
moderate winds are found W of the front. Seas of 12 to 14 ft
continue N of 29N between 68W and 78W, and 8-12 ft elsewhere N of
26N between 65W and 80W. Seas of 7-9 ft are noted over the
remainder of the waters W of 60W. East of the front, a 1026 mb
high is centered near 32N52W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. A cold front generating gales extends
from 31N27W to 20N40W, with a trough extending from the front to
20N60W. Aside from the area of gale force winds, strong to near-
gale force winds are found N of 25N within 120 nm east of the
front, and N of 24N W of the front to 45W. Fresh to strong winds
are noted within 60 nm N of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Outside of the
seas 12 ft or greater, seas of 8-12 ft are elsewhere N of 20N
between 25W and 55W, with seas of 7-10 ft over the remainder of
the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds associated with the front will
diminish through tonight as the main energy for the front lifts to
the north of the area. Large swell will linger north of 27N into
Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas tonight, and then stationary from there to western Cuba.
The northern portion of the front north of 27N will continue to
move east of the area through Fri night, while the southern
portion lifts northward as a warm front across the waters west of
70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with
building seas off northeast Florida Fri night ahead of the next
cold front, which is expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will diminish
through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba,
with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A weak front may move off
the northeast coast Mon.

$$
AL
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