[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 08 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front cuts through the area through the Florida
Panhandle, to the coast of Mexico along 20N. Gale-force
S to SW winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet
to 18 feet in SE to S swell, are from 24N northward
between 83W and 90W. Gale-force winds, and sea heights
that range from 8 feet to 14 feet, also are from
19N to 29N between 88W and 96W. These conditions will
begin to improve during the late night hours of tonight
and during the early morning hours of Wednesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM WARNING OFF THE EASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA...

Expect gale-force SE winds today and tonight
within 250 nm or so of the coast of Florida from 27N
northward. The gale-force winds are forecast to become
S to SW storm-force winds, during the late night hours
of tonight and during the early morning hours of
Wednesday, from 30N northward from 77W westward. The
maximum sea heights in this area and during this time
will range from 17 feet to 23 feet. The cold front that
is associated with these conditions will continue to
move eastward with time. The overall conditions should
begin to improve into Thursday day. Rough seas are from
the Bahamas northward from 70W westward.

...EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING
AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The sea heights are 12 feet and higher to the north of
31N47W 23N33W, to the coast of Africa along 28N. Rough
seas in general are elsewhere to the north of 20N at the
coast of Africa, to 14N31W 08N48W, to the coast of South
America along 60W, 20N60W, to the NW Bahamas. A cold front
passes through 31N37W to 25N50W 23N60W 23N73W. The front
is stationary from 23N73W, to 24N79W. Strong NW winds are
from 28N northward between the cold front and 60W. Strong
SW winds are from 27N northward between 35W and the cold
front. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from the cold
front northward between the front and 55W. Fresh SW are
elsewhere from 26N to the front between 35W and 44W.
Fresh NE winds are elsewhere between 55W and 70W.
Fresh winds are from 20N southward between 35W and 60W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 180 nm to the east and to the southeast
of the cold front from 25N44W northeastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details about the three situations.

...THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE METEOR...

Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE,
at 10/0600 UTC, and at 10/1200 UTC. Please, refer
to the METEO-FRANCE forecast for the METEOR marine
zone, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/
display/bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20240109082239672364,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W 04N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N24W, to 01N30W 01N40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the forecast for the gale-force winds.

A strong cold front extends from Pensacola, FL to
Poza Rica, Mexico. Gale force S winds are east of the front, N of
24N. Gale force NW winds are west of the front. A severe squall
line with extremely strong wind gusts persists along the cold
front north of 26N. The cold front will reach from the Florida
Big
Bend to Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon, from near Ft. Myers, FL
to Cancun, Mexico this evening, then move southeast of the basin
late tonight. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt with higher gusts
are
expected on both sides of the front through this evening. The
squall line will continue to bring severe gusts through today as
it moves eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions
will quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across
the Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to
increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front
approaches from the W. This front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow this front. Conditions
improve
Sat and Sat night as high pressure builds over the western Gulf,
although fresh NE winds will linger in the SE Gulf and Yucatan
Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rough seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean
Sea. Moderate seas cover most of the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. The exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters
from NW Colombia to Belize. Strong E winds are from 11N
to 15N between 75W and 78W. Fresh NE winds are in the eastern
one-third of the area. Fresh E to SE winds are in much of
the rest of the area. The exception is for moderate easterly
winds in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered
northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia is
supporting near-gale force NE to ENE winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia. Strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the
central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
in the northwestern Caribbean west of 83W will continue through
today as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The
front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel
tonight, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed
night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf
of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to
mainly fresh speeds by Wed afternoon, although winds will still
pulse to strong at night in the south-central basin through late
week. Southeasterly winds will increase over the western
Caribbean to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a cold
front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the forecast for the waters that are to the east of
Florida; and for the central Atlantic Ocean gale-force winds
and the Significant Swell Event.

Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area.

A cold front extends from 23N55W through the central
Bahamas. Southeast winds are reaching gale force ahead of a cold
front and will continue through late tonight or early Wed
morning. Frequent gusts to storm force are expected this evening
north of 30N and west of 74W, where a Storm Warning is in effect.
The cold front will move off NE Florida early this evening. By
Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near
31N68W to the central Bahamas. A squall line containing severe
thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just prior to the
frontal passage offshore Florida from late this afternoon through
tonight. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of
northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system
approaches from the W. It is expected to reach from near 31N77W
to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central
Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas are expected on either side of this front.

$$
mt/ja
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