[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A cold front extends from the Florida
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. N of 24N, along and up to 90 nm E
of this front, severe thunderstorms with high winds and frequent
lightning are causing hazard marine conditions. Gale force SW
winds are also occurring in this region, even where thunderstorms
are not present. Behind the front, N of 28N and E of 89W, gale
force westerly winds are occurring. Seas ahead of the front are 8
to 11 ft, with 12 to 18 ft behind it, where the gales are
occurring. This cold front is moving quickly east, and will move
out of the basin this evening. Thus, severe thunderstorms and the
gale conditions will end tonight, with quickly improving
conditions Wed.

WEST ATLANTIC STORM WARNING: Southerly winds ahead of a cold
front that is currently crossing Florida are reaching 30 to 40 kt
with higher gusts, N of 28N and W of 74W. As the cold front enters
the waters tonight, southerly winds ahead of it will increase
further, from gales to storm-force, mainly for areas N of 30N
between 75W and 78W. Gale conditions will prevail over a much
larger area tonight, N of 27N and eastward to about 70W. Behind
the front, westerly gales will also develop N of 29N. Seas in the
Storm Warning are will be near 15 to 20 ft, with a wide are of 12
to 18 ft seas expected in and near where the gales occur. The
associated cold front will move quickly east tonight and Wed, with
a line of severe thunderstorms with hazardous winds and seas
impacting waters ahead of it. Behind the front, conditions will
gradually improve Wed and Wed night.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A cold front
extends from 31N35W to 22N50W. Behind this front, an area of NW
gales are present N of 28N between 40W and 48W. These gales will
expand SE and impact waters N of 26N, eastward to 35W, through Wed
night, before gradually subsiding as the cold front moves farther
away into the eastern Atlantic. An expansive area of 12 ft seas or
greater dominates the entire waters behind the front, E of 60W.
with seas in excess of 20 ft where the gales are occurring. This
long period NW swell will cause hazardous seas to spread further,
reaching areas N of 15N and E of 50W by Thu. These very rough seas
are likely to persist through the week and the NE waters.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details about
the three situations.

EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As the aforementioned cold front moves
into the eastern Atlantic E of 35W, the gale force winds will
follow. Meteo-France is forecasting gale-force winds at 10/0600
UTC and at 10/1200 UTC for Marine Zone METEOR. Please refer to the
Meteo-France forecast at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/
display/bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20240109082239672364 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W 04N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N24W, to 01N30W 01N40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on gale-
force winds.

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche. Aside from the aforementioned gale conditions, fresh
to strong SW winds encompass waters SE of the boundary, with
strong NW winds extending W behind the front to 95W. Moderate to
fresh N winds prevail over the far western Gulf. Severe convection
associated with the front is also described above, with the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico void of convection as strong high
pressure builds toward the area. Seas in the northern Gulf are 12
to 16 ft, with seas of 8 to 11 ft elsewhere behind the cold front,
and 6 to 9 ft ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Ft. Myers,
FL to Cancun, Mexico this evening, then move southeast of the
basin late tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Wed through Thu
as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in the wake of the
front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the
basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. This front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the
Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this
front, possibly reaching gale force over the west-central Gulf
Fri. Conditions improve Sat and Sat night as high pressure builds
over the western Gulf, although fresh NE winds will linger in the
SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades and 8 to 11 ft seas dominate the central basin, with
fresh to strong winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in the east. In the
western Caribbean winds are moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft. No
significant convection nor features are present in the basin this
evening.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia
will continue to support strong to near-gale force NE to E winds
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through Fri morning. Fresh
to strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean
through late Thu night. Fresh SE to S winds in the northwestern
Caribbean west of 83W will persist through early this evening as a
strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will
weaken significantly once it reaches the Yucatan Channel later
tonight, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate
by early Wed morning as high pressure shifts eastward across the
central Gulf of Mexico. Southeasterly winds will increase over the
western Caribbean to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a
cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Storm Warning offshore NE Florida and a Gale Warning in the
northern parts of the central and eastern basin.

Aside from these areas, A cold front extends from 31N35W to
22N50W. Strong NE winds are present within about 120 nm behind the
front, with fresh NE winds elsewhere behind the front and
extending to 65W. To the W of 65W, strong SE return flow has
developed. South of the frontal boundary and elsewhere S of 20N,
mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate waters
N of the front, with 7 to 10 ft seas to the S. Aside from
convection associated with the ITCZ, described in the section
above, the only convection is along and within 90 nm ahead of the
cold front, N of 25N.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida
early this evening. S to SW winds ahead and behind this second
front, north of 29N between 70W and 80W will reach gale to storm
force late this evening and will last into Wed morning. By Wed
evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near
31N68W to the central Bahamas. A squall line containing severe
thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just prior to the
frontal passage across offshore Florida from late this afternoon
through tonight. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase off
northeast Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches
from the W. It is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South
Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and
to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected on either side of this front.

$$
Konarik
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