[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091214
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Storm Warning: Southeast winds of 25 to 35 kt and
seas of 8 to 12 ft are already occurring east of Florida this
morning ahead of a cold front, that is forecast to emerge off the
coast of NE Florida late this afternoon. Widespread sustained gale
force winds of 35 to 45 kt are expected from midday today through
late tonight to the north of 27.5N, extending from the east coast
of Florida eastward to 70W. Sustained winds to 45 kt with
frequent gusts of storm force are expected north of 30N between
77W and 80W late this afternoon through this evening. Then, the
storm force conditions will move E, covering the area north of 30N
between 74W and 77W tonight. The storm conditions will end before
sunrise Wed, but gales will continue through Wed morning E of the
front, north of 30N between 69W and 72W before the gales move N
of 31N by Wed afternoon. By Wed evening, the front will be
weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas.
Seas will build to 15 to 20 ft by this evening north of 29N. A
squall line containing severe thunderstorms is expected to occur
along with the cold front as it passes over the waters east of
Florida late this afternoon through late tonight. Seas will
subside Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the
coast of Mississippi to Tampico, Mexico. The front will reach
from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico by this evening, then
move southeast of the basin late tonight. Sustained winds of 30 to
40 kt are currently occurring on both sides of the cold front
north of 24N. South of 24N and west of 94W, NW winds of 30 to 40
kt are behind the front. Seas are 12 to 18 ft north of 24N, and 7
to 12 ft south of 24N. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt with
higher gusts are expected to continue through early this evening
before diminishing below gale force late this evening. A squall
line containing extremely strong wind gusts, frequent lightning
and possible water spouts is currently seen on satellite imagery
along the cold front north of 25N. This squall line will continue
to bring severe gusts as it moves eastward across the Gulf of
Mexico through sunset today. Conditions quiet down Wed through
Wed night as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in the wake of
the front.

East-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends
from 31N43W to 23N66W. Strong to near gale-force winds currently
exist on either side of the front north of 27N and between 34W
and 58W. Additionally, very large NW swell is occurring to the NW
of this front. Seas greater than 12 ft are present north of 26N
and between 20W and 66W. Gale force winds of 35 to 45 kt are
expected north of 27N and east of 48W from late this afternoon
through late Wed night. Seas of 20 to to 24 ft are expected with
the gales. The aforementioned NW swell will spread seas of 12 ft
or greater as far south as 16N by Thu. By Thu, the 12 to 22 ft
seas will be north of 16N between 20W and 54W. The east Atlantic
swell will gradually subside late Fri and Fri night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details about the three situations.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ
extends from from 06N18W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and east of 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the forecast for
the next few days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong mid-level anticyclonic flow is leading to subsidence and
dry air over the basin. Strong trades cover the central Caribbean,
with near-gale force ENE winds within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Strong SE winds are occurring in the NW Caribbean,
including in the Gulf of Honduras, Yucatan Channel and lee of
Cuba. Strong E winds are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, fresh
winds prevail. Seas in the central Caribbean are 8 to 11 ft,
except 10 to 12 ft near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
in the NW Caribbean, except 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are
5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia
is supporting near-gale force NE to ENE winds within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia. Strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the
central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
in the northwestern Caribbean west of 83W will continue through
today as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The
front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel
tonight, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed
night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of
Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly
fresh speeds by Wed afternoon, although winds will still pulse to
strong at night in the south-central basin through late week.
Southeasterly winds will increase over the western Caribbean to
fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a cold front approaches
the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Winds between Florida and 70W are SE to S 25 to 35 kt and
increasing, with seas 8 to 12 ft. Scattered showers are moving
offshore northern Florida now too. Please read the Special
Features section for more details about the West Atlantic Storm
Warning, to the east of Florida.

East of 70W...A cold front extends from 31N43W to 23N60W to
23N66W and continues as a stationary front to Key Largo, FL. Fresh
to near gale-force winds are present everywhere to the north and
west of this frontal boundary, north of 23N between 43W and the
east coast of Florida, along with very rough seas of 8 to 23
feet, highest near 31N52W. Fresh to near gale-force winds are
also found southeast of the front, mainly north of 27N and west
of 35W. Rough to very rough seas are evident in the area
described. A surface ridge containing gentle winds extends from
23N35W to 21N54W. This area is experiencing NW swell of 7 to 10
ft. Farther south, fresh trades and 8 to 9 ft seas prevail from
04N to 17N between 30W and 62W.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 25N55W to 23N67W, and
continues as a stationary front to the Upper Florida Keys.
Southeast winds of near-gale force will increase to gale force by
sunrise this morning ahead of a cold front and continue through
late tonight or early Wed morning. Frequent gusts to storm force
are expected tonight north of 30N and west of 74W, where a Storm
Warning is in effect. The cold front will move off NE Florida
early this evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as
it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. A squall line
containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just
prior to the frontal passage offshore Florida from late this
afternoon through tonight. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure
builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to
increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next
frontal system approaches from the W. It is expected to reach
from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W
to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this
front.

$$
Hagen
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