[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from SW
Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas. The front will reach from Pensacola,
FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to
Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, then move southeast of the basin late
Tue night. Strong to gale-force winds are occurring over much of
the Gulf, especially north of 22N. Seas in these waters are 8-18
ft, with the highest seas occurring off the mouth of the
Mississippi River. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt with higher
gusts are expected on both sides of the front through Tue evening.
A line of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms is developing
ahead of the front. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms
with very strong wind gusts is expected to intensify tonight after
midnight along and within 30 nm ahead of the cold front, when it
will extend from the coast of Mississippi to offshore SE Louisiana.
The squall line will continue to bring severe gusts through Tue
as it moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions quiet
down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in
the wake of the front.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Southeast winds will increase to
strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to
gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a
strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will
move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front
will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central
Bahamas. Rough seas are found west of 70W, forecast to become very
rough Tue morning and peak near 18 ft late Tue. Rough to very
rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast
of the Bahamas. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is
likely to occur along or just prior to the frontal passage offshore
Florida from late Tue afternoon through Tue night. Seas will
subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure
shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
31N48W to 23N69W. Strong to near gale-force winds currently exist
on either side of the front north of 26N and between 37W and 65W.
Additionally, very large NW swell are occurring in association
with this front. Seas greater than 12 ft are present north of 25N
and between 25W and 70W. By Tue afternoon, the front will extend
from 31N36W to 21N60W. While there should be little change in the
winds, the very large swell should reach down to 22N and east of
62W. By late Tue, gale-force NW winds behind the front should
extend southward into our waters north of 25N east of 50W with
peak seas of around 25 ft. By Wed night, the gale-force winds will
have moved east of our 35W boundary, while very large swell
should still be occurring north of 18N east of 50W. These swell
will continue while very gradually diminishing until Sat.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over
Colombia support gale force NE to ENE winds tonight within 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Seas in the south-central Caribbean will
build to 12 ft Tue morning. Fresh to strong easterly trades will
persist for the rest of the week.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about
the three situations.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ
extends from from 06N18W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and east of 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warnings for the northern, central and SW Gulf.

As of 0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from SW Louisiana to
NE Tamaulipas. A line of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms is
developing ahead of the front and will affect the northern and NE
Gulf tonight into Tue. Winds and seas north of 21N are discussed
in the Special Features section. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast starting Wed morning, the aforementioned cold
front will reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue,
from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, then move
southeast of the basin late Tue night. Sustained winds of 30 to 40
kt with higher gusts are expected on both sides of the front
through Tue evening. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms
with very strong wind gusts is expected to intensify tonight
after midnight along and within 30 nm ahead of the cold front,
when it will extend from the coast of Mississippi to offshore SE
Louisiana. The squall line will continue to bring severe gusts
through Tue as it moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico.
Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E
across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds
begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front
approaches from the W. The front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas will follow this front. Conditions improve Sat and
Sat night as high pressure builds over the western Gulf, although
fresh NE winds will linger in the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning off Colombia.

A 1033 mb high pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic states in the
United States extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. Outside
of the south-central Caribbean, the ridge also supports fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the north- central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, and the western Caribbean, mainly
west of 84W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the
Caribbean. No deep convection is evident across the basin,
however, pockets of low- level moisture move westward with the
trades producing isolated showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia
will support gale force NE to ENE winds tonight within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the
central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
in the northwestern Caribbean west of 83W will continue through
Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front
will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue
night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed
night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of
Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly
fresh speeds by Wed afternoon, although winds will still pulse to
strong at night in the south-central basin through late week.
Southeasterly winds will increase over the western Caribbean to
fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a cold front approaches
the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warnings in the western and central Atlantic waters.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues southwestward to 23N69W, then becoming a stationary
front to the Florida Keys. Fresh to near gale-force winds are
present behind the frontal boundary, along with rough to very
rough seas. Fresh to near gale-force winds are also found ahead of
the front, mainly north of 27N and west of 35W. Rough to very
rough seas are evident in the area described. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of the
stationary front and west of 65W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under broad ridging, anchored
by a 1033 mb high pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic states and
a 1023 mb high pressure system between the Azores and Madeira
Island. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridging
and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh
easterly trades south of 20N and west of 25W. Seas in these waters
are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 15N55W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 26N55W to 23N69W, and
continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys. Strong winds
will continue behind the front north of 27N and east of 64W as it
moves eastward. Southeast winds will increase to strong to near
gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue
through Tue night north of 27N and west of 70W as a strong cold
front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE
Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be
weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. A
squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur
along or just prior to the frontal passage offshore Florida from
late Tue afternoon through Tue night. Seas will subside Thu as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds
begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as
the next frontal system approaches from the W. It is expected to
reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near
31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either
side of this front.

$$
Delgado
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