[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A warm front extends from the Straits of Florida northwestward to
south-central Louisiana. It will continue to lift north-
northeastward through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected mainly along and north of the warm front, with the
possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms along and just north
of the northern border of the offshore water zones. A very strong
cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening,
reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near
Ft. Myers, FL to the NE Yucatan Peninsula Tue evening, then move
southeast of the basin late Tue night. Near gale to gale force
winds are developing over most of the Gulf north of about 25N.
Gusts to strong gale force speeds are expected over the northern
Gulf. Near gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of
Mexico on both sides of the front, through Tue evening, with
several areas experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall
line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the
northern Gulf of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west
of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night
north of 28N and west of 70W as a strong cold front approaches
from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue
evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches
from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will
continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A
squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms is likely
to occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early
Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu
as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of
the front.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A strong cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas at
24N75W. Winds to near gale currently exist on either side of the
front north of 27N east of 65W. Additionally, very large NW swell
are occurring in association with this front north of 30N east of
65W. By tomorrow afternoon, the front will extend from 31N36W to
21N60W. While there should be little change in the winds, the very
large swell should reach down to 24N east of 62W. Tomorrow night
gale- force NW winds behind the front should extend southward into
our waters north of 25N east of 45W with peak seas of around 25
ft. By Wed night, the gale-force winds will have moved east of our
35W boundary, while very large swell should still be occurring
north of 18N east of 50W. These swell will continue while very
gradually diminishing until Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about
the three situations.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-06N east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds.

A warm front extends from 30N94W near the LA-TX border
southeastward to 24N80W in the Florida Straits. Gale-force SE to S
winds are occurring south of the front. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted northeast of the front. Seas
are up to 14 ft in the central Gulf.

For the forecast starting Wed morning, conditions quiet down Wed
through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in
the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late
Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W.
The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and
reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow
in the wake of this front. Conditions improve Sat and Sat night
as high pressure builds over the western Gulf, however, fresh to
locally strong northeast winds will linger in the southeastern
Gulf and near and in the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing fresh to
strong E trades across the central Caribbean with moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 4-7 ft
elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia.
Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong tonight through Tue as a strong cold
front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken
significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and
winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the
central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by
midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western
Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night,
then weaken Sat and Sat night as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
forecast for the Western Atlantic and Central Atlantic Gale Force
Wind Warnings.

A strong cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas at
24N75W. Winds to near gale currently exist on either side of the
front north of 27N east of 65W. Additionally, very large NW swell
are occurring in association with this front north of 30N east of
65W. Scattered showers are occurring within 30 NM of the front.
Elsewhere winds are fresh or weaker with seas of 8-12 ft except
4-7 ft from 20N-29N west of 50W.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N66W to
24N73W, and continues as a stationary front to along the north
coast of Cuba. Fresh to strong winds will continue on both sides
of the front north of 28N and east of 73W as it moves eastward.
The front will reach from near 26N55W to 24N65W and stationary to
23N80W this evening, then become weakening stationary Tue evening
from 20N55W to near 22N65W. Southeast winds will increase to
strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to
gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a
strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will
move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front
will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central
Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida
and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to
severe thunderstorms is likely to occur just prior to the frontal
passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu
night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly
winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late
Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. It is
expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and
from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by
late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of this front.

$$
Landsea
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