[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Southerly gale-force winds are in the central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico today. A warm front will be stretching across the Gulf
this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will move to the Texas
coast on Tuesday morning. Gale-force winds will be on either side
of the cold front during the next 24 hours or so. The sea heights
will be ranging from 10 feet to 17 feet during the 24 hours or so.
The peak sea heights will reach 14 feet to 17 feet in the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Severe thunderstorms with strong wind
gusts are likely, especially in the NE and in the north central
Gulf of Mexico, between this afternoon and when the cold front
passes.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Southerly winds will increase to gale-force off the coast of
northeastern Florida on Tuesday morning. This will be happening
in advance of a cold front that is expected to move off the
northeastern Florida coast on Tuesday night. Expect the winds to
reach 40 knots. The sea heights will build to 13 feet to 21 feet
in the waters that are to the north of 28N and to the west of 69W
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The conditions will improve quickly
on Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Earlier gale-force winds, that were along the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 75W, have been slowing down, and those winds will
continue to be less than gale-force through tonight. Expect the
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 10N to 17N
between 70W and 81W, with the strong to near gale-force winds, for
the next 24 hours or so.

...SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The forecast consists of: sea heights to range from 20 feet to 25
feet, from Monday night through Wednesday, north of 24N between
29W and 59W. The situation now consists of a cold front, that
passes through 31N59W 25N70W, to 24N76W in the Bahamas. A surface
trough is 300 nm to 400 nm to the east and to the southeast of the
cold front from 20N northward. Fresh to strong SW winds are from
27N northward between 50W and the cold front. Fresh to strong N
winds are from the cold front northward. Moderate or slower winds
are elsewhere from 50W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 20N northward from 50W westward. A dissipating cold front
passes through 31N22W to 25N30W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 25N30W to 21N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Sea heights that are 12
feet or higher are to the north of the line that passes through
31N22W 25N30W 23N40W beyond 31N53W. Rough seas are elsewhere to
the north of the line 10N60W 18N40W 24N30W 31N20W. Moderate or
slower winds are from 18N northward from 50W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about
the three situations.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, 05N22W
04N26W 04N34W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 01N to 07N from 30W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about the forecast for the gale-force winds.

A developing warm front stretches from the central Gulf of Mexico
toward NW Cuba. This boundary is at the southwestern end of the
31N59W-to-Bahamas cold front. Precipitation: scattered strong is
from 27N to 29N between 88W and 91W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate is in much of the rest of the Gulf from 91W eastward.
Broken to overcast high level clouds cover the SW corner of the
area, and they continue beyond the NE Gulf. Isolated moderate is
in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

Rough to very rough seas are in the NW corner of the Gulf. Rough
seas are in the central sections of the area from east to west.
Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the area. The exception is
for slight to moderate seas in the coastal waters of Florida.
Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are in the western half
of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are in the eastern
half of the area.

A developing warm front extends from the western tip of Cuba
northwestward to near 24N91W. The front will lift north-
northeastward through Tue. It will be accompanied by scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to
strong to near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong
cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening,
reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near
Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of
the basin late Tue night. Widespread sustained gale force winds
are expected to begin by late Mon morning over the northern Gulf,
with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Near- gale force
winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of
the front, Mon through Tue evening, with several areas
experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing
severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of
Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down
Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf
in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase
late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from
the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri
and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by
late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow in the wake of this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about the weakening gale-force winds.

Earlier gale-force winds, that were along the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 75W, have been slowing down, and those winds will
continue to be less than gale-force through tonight. Expect the
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 10N to 17N
between 70W and 81W, with the strong to near gale-force winds, for
the next 24 hours or so.

Rough seas are within at least 300 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W and 80W. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the
areas. The exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters that
are from NE Nicaragua toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to
strong NE winds are in the central one-third of the area. Mostly fresh
to some moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the area.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the
basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to
near-gale force at night offshore Colombia. Gale force winds
currently occurring near the coast of Colombia will diminish below
gale force around sunrise this morning. Southeast to south winds
in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong
tonight through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of
Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the
Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will
diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across
the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will
diminish to mainly fresh speeds by midweek. Southeasterly winds
begin to increase over the western Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh
to strong speeds Fri and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about the forecast for the gale-force winds, and
for details about the Significant Swell Event.

Fresh NE winds are to the south of the line 18N60W 18N57W 19N45W
18N32W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N59 to the central Bahamas, and
continues as a stationary front to near Havana, Cuba. Fresh to
strong winds will continue on both sides of the front north of 28N
and east of 73W as it moves eastward. The front will reach from
near 27N55W to 24N70W and stationary to 24N80W this evening, then
become stationary Tue evening near 21N55W to 25N74W. Southeast
winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W
tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north
of 28N and west of 70W as a cold front approaches from the west.
The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed
evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near
31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed
night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line
containing strong to severe thunderstorms will occur just prior to
the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside
Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and
central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches
from the W.

$$
MT/JA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net