[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale
force over the north-central Gulf of Mexico by midday today,
associated with a warm front moving across the northern Gulf ahead
of a cold front approaching from the Southern Plains. The cold
front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, reach
from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft.
Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the
basin late Tue night. Expect gale force winds of 30 to 40 kt along
with very rough seas today through Tue, both ahead and following
the front north of 24N, and over the western Gulf, off the Mexican
states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Conditions will quickly
improve early Wed. Seas will peak in the 14 to 17 ft range over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Severe thunderstorms with strong wind
gusts are likely, especially over the NE and north-central Gulf
of Mexico, between this afternoon and when the cold front passes.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale
force off the coast of northeast Florida Tue morning ahead of a
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night. Expect winds to 40 kt with seas building to 13 to 21 ft
over the water north of 28N and west of 69W on Tue and Tue night.
Conditions will quickly improve Wed.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area
supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena for another
couple of hours, until sunrise today. Seas are peaking now near 12
to 13 ft in this area. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough
seas will persist elsewhere off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through Tue night before diminishing a bit for the
second half of the week.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell: A strong low
pressure in the far north Atlantic along 40N extends a cold front
through 31N63W to the central Bahamas. The front will reach from
near 31N39W to 23N55W to 22N65W early Tue, and from near 31N31W to
21N40W to 19N50W to 19N60W early Wed. Gale force NW winds are
expected behind the front Tue afternoon through Wed, north of 26N
between 23W and 49W. Prior to when the gales begin, from today
through Tue morning, seas of 12 to 22 ft in NW swell is expected
behind the front, north of 25N between 35W and 68W. During the
time of the aforementioned gales, from Tue afternoon through Wed,
seas of 12 to 25 ft are expected north of 18N between 23W and 64W.
The highest seas of 20 to 25 ft are forecast to occur Mon night
through Wed, north of 24N between 29W and 59W.

Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details on all of the special features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N17W to 05N38W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between
07W and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds in the Gulf
of Mexico are forecast to begin by 1500 UTC this morning, and end
Tuesday evening.

A stationary front extends from Havana Cuba to the north coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. No
deep convection near this boundary. Farther north, an active
subtropical jet stream brings mid to upper level moisture along
with scattered showers across the central, north-central and
northeastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high
pressure centered over Georgia and lower pressures across Texas
and Mexico support strong to near gale-force SE winds and 8 to 10
ft seas across a large portion of the basin, north of 20N and west
of 86W. Elsewhere, fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front will begin to lift
northward as a warm front this morning, accompanied by scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to
near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong cold
front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, reach
from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft.
Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the
basin late Tue night. Widespread sustained gale force winds are
expected to begin by late this morning over the northern Gulf,
with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Near-gale force
winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of
the front, today through Tue evening, with several areas
experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing
severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of
Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down
Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf
in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase
late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from
the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri
and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by
late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow in the wake of this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Near gale to minimal gale force winds are occurring near the coast
of Colombia with seas 12 to 13 ft. Strong trades and 8 to 12 ft
seas are elsewhere south of 16.5N between 71W and 80W. Fresh
trades are elsewhere across the Caribbean with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia.
Gale force winds currently occurring near the coast of Colombia
will diminish below gale force around sunrise this morning.
Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong tonight through Tue as a strong cold
front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken
significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and
winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the
central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by
midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western
Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the west Atlantic and central Atlantic Gale
Warning and significant swell event.

A cold front enters the Atlantic near 31N63W and continues
southwestward to the central Bahamas near 24N76W, then continues
as a stationary front to near Havana, Cuba. Fresh to near gale-
force winds are found north of 28N and between 47W and 73W on both
sides of the front. Seas in these waters are 7 to 12 ft.

Farther east, another cold front passes through 31N22W to 25N31W,
then continues as a stationary front to 21N40W to 21N50W. A few
showers are present near the front, mainly north of 25N and east
of 33W. Moderate N-NE winds are occurring within 120 nm to the
north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 10 to 15 ft in NW swell
from the front extending northward. Seas are 8 to 11 ft elsewhere
north of 11N between 35W and 62W, and also north of 21N between
22W and 35W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft south of 28N and west of 63W.
Fresh to locally strong ENE trade winds are from 07N to 19N
between 40W and 62W. A surface ridge with gentle winds extends
from 31N32W to 25N50W to 24N70W, anchored by a 1023 mb high near
29N38W and a 1022 mb high near 27N46.5W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N63W to
the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Fresh to strong winds will
continue on both sides of the front north of 28N and east of 73W
as it moves eastward. The front will reach from near 27N55W to
24N70W and stationary to 24N80W this evening, then become
stationary Tue evening near 21N55W to 25N74W. Southeast winds will
increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then
increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west
of 70W as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front
will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the
front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the
central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of
Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing
strong to severe thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal
passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu
night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly
winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late
Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W.

$$
Hagen
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