[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080449
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale
force over the north-central Gulf of Mexico by Mon afternoon,
associated with a warm front moving across the northern Gulf ahead
of a cold front approaching from the Southern Plains. The cold
front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico Mon night, reach from
Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers,
FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin
late Tue night. Expect winds to gale force along with rough to
very rough seas Mon night and Tue, both ahead and following the
front north of 26N, and over the western Gulf off the Mexican
states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Conditions will quickly improve
early Wed.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale
force off the coast of northeast Florida Tue morning ahead of a
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night. Expect winds to 40 kt with seas building as high as 19 ft
over the water north of 28N and west of 75W on Tue. Conditions will
quickly improve Wed.

Caribbean Gale warning: Strong high pressure north of the area
supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force within 90 nm off the
coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena tonight into
early Mon. Seas will reach as high as 13 ft in this area. Strong
to near-gale force winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere
off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela through the week.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A strong low pressure in the far north
Atlantic continues to produce a large area of northerly swell,
resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north of 22N and between 30W
and 52W. This area of swell will diminish slightly in areal extent
through tonight, but another group of reinforcing swell will
start to move south of 31N tonight and early Tue. The combined
areas of swell will cover the area north of 28N between 25W and
65W, with wave ranging from 12 ft to as high as 22 ft by Mon
night. The swell will cover the area north of 24N between 35W and
65W by late Tue.

please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N16W to 02N33W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between
12W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the northern Gulf waters.

A stationary front is draped across western Cuba, the Yucatan
Channel, northern Yucatan and across the Bay of Campeche. No deep
convection near this boundary. Farther north, an active
subtropical jet stream brings mid to upper level moisture across
the western and northern Gulf of Mexico waters resulting in
cloudiness and isolated showers. The pressure gradient between the
1024 mb ridge over the SE United States and lower pressures across
Mexico support fresh to near gale-force easterly winds over much
of the Gulf. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass
showing winds up to 29 kt. Moderate or weaker winds are found in
the NE Gulf and south of 20N. Seas are 5-8 ft from 20N to 29N and
2-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will begin to lift
northward as a warm front early Mon, accompanied by scattered
strong thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to strong to
near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong cold front
will enter the western Gulf of Mexico Mon evening, reach from
Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers,
FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin
late Tue night. Widespread sustained gale force winds are expected
to begin by late Mon morning over the northern Gulf, with gusts
reaching strong gale force speeds. Near-gale force winds are
expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the
front, Mon through Tue evening, with several areas experiencing
sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing severe
thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico
just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down Wed
through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in
the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late
Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W.
The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and
reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow
in the wake of this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean Sea, a recent
scatterometer satellite pass depict moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia.
Winds near the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight.
Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong Mon night through Tue as a strong cold
front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken
significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and
winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the
central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by
midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western
Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning for the SW Atlantic and the Significant Swell Event.

A cold front enters the southwest north Atlantic near 31N67W and
continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas. A few showers are noted
near this boundary. Fresh to near gale-force winds are found north
of 28N and between 49W and 77W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft.

Farther east, another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near
31N25W and continues to 24N33W, becoming a stationary front to
22N53W. A few showers are present ahead of the front, north of
27N. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are occurring within 90 nm to
the north of the frontal boundary. Information on the seas is
available in the Special Features section.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. The
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong
easterly winds south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in these waters
are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front in the SW N Atlantic will
reach from near 27N55W to 25N63W and stationary to 24N80W Mon
evening, then become stationary Tue evening near 21N55W to 23N71W
and begin to weaken. Southeast winds will increase to strong to
near gale force west of 70W Mon night, then increase to gale force
Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a cold
front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE
Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be
weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas.
Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and
northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal passage
late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds
begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as
the next frontal system approaches from the W.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net