[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale
force over the north-central Gulf of Mexico by Mon afternoon,
associated with a warm front moving across the northern Gulf ahead
of a cold front approaching from the Southern Plains. The cold
front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico Mon night, reach from
Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers,
FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin
late Tue night. Expect winds to gale force along with rough to
very rough seas Mon night and Tue both ahead and following the
front north of 26N, and over the western Gulf off the Mexican
states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale
force off the coast of northeast Florida Tue morning ahead of a
cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night. Expect winds to 40 kt with seas building as high as 16 ft
over the water north of 28N and west of 75W on Tue.

Caribbean Gale warning: Strong high pressure north of the area
will support winds pulsing to minimal gale force within 90 nm off
the coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena tonight.
Seas will reach as high as 12 ft in this area. Strong to near-gale
force winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere off Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela through mid week.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Wave heights are 12 to 14 ft primarily
in NW swell north of 26N between 35W and 50W. This area of swell
will diminish slightly in areal extent through tonight, but
another group of reinforcing swell will start to move south of 31N
tonight and early Tue. The combined areas of swell will cover the
area north of 28N between 25W and 65W, with wave ranging from 12
ft to as high as 22 ft by Mon night. The swell will cover the
area north of 24N between 35W and 65W by late Tue.

please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W to 05N20W to
04N50W. No significant convection is evident near the ITCZ at this
time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds.

The southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean cold front extends
from the Straits of Florida to Merida, Mexico on the northwest
Yucatan Peninsula, to near Veracruz, Mexico. Recent buoy data
shows moderate to fresh NE to E winds across most of the Gulf.
with 3 to 5 ft seas, except near 6 ft over the southwest Gulf in
NE swell. There are possibly a few showers over the far western
Gulf currently, but no other significant weather is noted.

For the forecast, the front will become entirely stationary early
this evening, then will begin to lift northward as a warm front
early Mon, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms as
southeasterly winds increase to strong to near gale force across
much of the basin. A very strong cold front will enter the western
Gulf of Mexico Mon night, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz,
Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue
evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Gale
force winds are expected to begin by late Mon morning over the
north-central Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds.
Near-gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico
on both sides of the front, Mon through Tue, with several areas
experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing
severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of
Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down
Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf
in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase
late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from
the W. This next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf
early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan
Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas will follow in the wake of this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds.

Fresh trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are ongoing over the
southwest Caribbean from the coast of Colombia to 15N between 70W
and 80W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia.
Winds near the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight.
Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong Mon night through Tue as a strong cold
front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken
significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and
winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the
central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by
midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western
Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds, and for details about the
Significant Swell Event.

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N68W to the northwest
Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong winds and
6 to 8 ft seas are noted within 120 nm on either side of the
front, north of 27N. For the remainder of the area across the
north Atlantic south of 31N, gentle to moderate trade winds
persist, with 5 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will continue
on both sides of the front north of 27N as it moves eastward. The
front will reach from near 27N55W to 25N63W and stationary to
24N80W Mon evening, then become stationary Tue evening near 21N55W
to 23N71W and begin to weaken. Southeast winds will increase to
strong to near gale force west of 70W Mon night, then increase to
gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a
cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off
NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be
weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas.
Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and
northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal passage
late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as
high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds
begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as
the next frontal system approaches from the W.

$$
Christensen
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