[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 07 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A frontal boundary will be moving through the Gulf of Mexico
by Monday morning. A warm front will be along 25N87W 29N95W.
Expect gale-force SE winds, and sea heights to range from
10 feet to 15 feet, from 24N to 30N between 86W and 94W.
Expect strong to near gale-force SE winds, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 19N to 30N between
84W and 98W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect on Tuesday morning: SE to S gale-force winds, and
sea heights to range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from 28N
to 31N between 77W and 81W. Expect elsewhere: from 20N
to 31N between 70W and 81W including in the Straits of
Florida, SE to S winds 20 knots to 30 knots. The sea
heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet to the NE of
the Bahamas, and between the Bahamas and South Florida
from 26N to 28N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect tonight: gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights
from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and
75.5W. Expect elsewhere: from 09N to 15N between 69W and
80W, NE to E strong to near gale-force winds, and sea
heights from 8 feet to 11 feet. Expect in the remainder
of the area from 09N to 16N between 69W and 81W, fresh
winds or slower, and rough seas in E swell. The gale-force
winds are forecast to slow down to less than gale-force
by Monday morning.

...SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The sea heights are 12 feet and higher from 25N northward
between 40W and 55W. Rough seas in general are elsewhere
to the north of 31N20W 21N32W 23N48W 22N66W. A cold front
passes through 31N26W to 27N30W 22N40W. The front is
stationary from 22N40W, to 22N50W 21N60W 21N68W. Mostly
moderate or slower winds, with some fresh winds, are to
the north and to the northwest of the frontal boundary.
This large swell will spread toward the east through today.
The sea heights will decrease to less than 12 feet tonight
from 30N southward. The next large and powerful storm
system currently is about 360 nm to the east of Florida.
The front will move toward the area of the existing
frontal boundary during the next few days. Extremely
large NW to N swell will move into the Atlantic Ocean
behind the front from Monday afternoon through late
this week. The forecast sea heights will range from
18 feet to 25 feet, north of 24N between 35W and 60W,
from Monday night through Tuesday night. Sea heights
from 12 feet to 18 feet are forecast during that time
elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 68W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is from 24N
northward between 20W and 32W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 70W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details about the three situations.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W, to
05N20W 04N30W 04N40W 04N51W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong generally is from
10N southward from 60W eastward...mostly from 10N
southward from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds.

The southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean cold front,
that is about 360 nm to the east of Florida, passes
through Florida from 25N to 26N, and then toward the
southwest to the coast of Mexico near 20N between 96W
and 97W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong spans the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas
are in the NE quadrant of the area, and in the central
and south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico.
Slight seas are elsewhere. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
wind flow spans the area.

A cold front extends from Naples, FL to 24N88W, where
it becomes a stationary front to the SW Bay of Campeche
near 20N96W. The cold front will become stationary early
this evening from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W.
The front will then move northward across the basin as
a warm front tonight through early Mon, accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms as southeasterly
winds increase to strong to near gale force across
much of the basin.  A very strong cold front will enter
the western Gulf of Mexico early Mon evening, reach from
Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near
Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move
southeast of the basin late Tue night. Gale force winds
are expected to begin by late Mon morning over the
north-central Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force
speeds. Near-gale force winds are expected for most of
the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front, Mon
through Tue, with several areas experiencing sustained
gale force winds. A squall line containing severe
thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf
of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions
quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E
across the central Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds.

Rough seas are within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W and 80W. Moderate seas cover the areas that
are between 64W and the coastal waters of Central America.
Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Strong
NE winds are within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 72W and 80W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
in the rest of the area that is from 80W eastward. Fresh
to moderate SE winds are in the NW corner of the area.
Moderate E winds are in the SW corner of the area.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in
inches, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC are:
0.13 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered
north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night
offshore Colombia. Winds near the coast of Colombia will
reach gale force tonight. SE to S winds in the northwestern
Caribbean are expected to increase to fresh to strong late
Mon through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf
of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it
reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the
NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high
pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico.
In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly
fresh speeds by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds, and for details about the
Significant Swell Event.

A cold front is about 360 nm to the east of Florida.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong, and fresh winds
are from 25N northward from 70W westward. Moderate or
slower winds are elsewhere from 70W westward. Rough seas
are from 29N northward from the cold front westward.
Moderate seas are elsewhere from 70W westward.

Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are from the
cold front/stationary front southward, from 30W westward.
Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to South Florida. Fresh to
strong winds will continue on both sides of the front north
of 27N as it moves eastward. The front will reach from near
31N68W to the Straits of Florida this evening, from near
27N55W to 23N72W and stationary to 24N80W Mon evening, and
weakening as a stationary front Tue evening from near 21N55W
to 23N71W. SE winds will increase to strong to near gale
force west of 70W Mon night, then increase to gale force
Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a
cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will
move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening,
the front will be weakening as it reaches from near
31N68W to Eleuthera Island, Bahamas, but very rough seas
will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of
the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe
thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal
passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside
Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic.

$$
MT/JA
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