[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to the straits of Florida.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180
nm east of the front and N of 26N. Gale force W to NW winds are
behind the front north of 30N to 68W. Large NW swell with this
system is generating an area of 12 ft seas N of 28N between 63W
and 73W, currently peaking near 18 ft. The area of gale force
winds will shift N of the area by this evening. The area of seas
greater than 12 ft will shift eastward along with the cold front
through the end of the week. Please refer to the High Seas issued
by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml1 more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N17W.
The ITCZ runs from 07N17W to 03N38W to 01N47W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from low pressure centered over the NW Gulf
to the SE Gulf. A cold front extends from the low to southern
Texas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
near the low over the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to
8 ft are over the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere
over the waters W of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds are noted
E of 90W. Seas elsewhere W of 90W are in the 3-5 ft range, with
seas of 2-4 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will track NE to E
across the northern Gulf with associated warm front shifting north
over the central while the the cold front moves across the Gulf
waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected with this low and cold
front. Another cold front is forecast to move into the basin Fri
night into the weekend, bringing similar fresh to strong winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are found off the coast of Colombia, with
fresh winds in the Windward Passage as well as between Cuba and
Jamaica. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6-7 ft range off the coast of Colombia, 4-6 ft W of 72W, and
2-3 ft E of 72W.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia into the
weekend. S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the NW
Caribbean Fri night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of
Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on an ongoing
gale warning.

A cold front extends from 31N60W to the straits of Florida, with
associated gales W of the front discussed above. Strong to near
gale force winds are elsewhere on either side of the front N of
28N between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N
of 25N between 50W and 75W. Outside of the area of 12 ft seas
mentioned above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 25N
between 50W and 75W. Farther east, a weak low pressure center is
near 29N33W, with mainly gentle winds in the vicinity of the low.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 20N and E of 50W. S of
20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Outside of the area of seas
greater than 8 ft mentioned above, seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, another cold front will move off the
Florida coast Wed night, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu
night, then move over the SE waters for the end of the week.
Strong winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters on
both sides of this front. A third and stronger cold front will
move into the waters off NE Florida this weekend. Gale force
southerly winds are possible off NE Florida ahead of the front
Sat.

$$
AL
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