[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 03 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front passes through 31N57W, to 29N60W, 23N70W,
and to 23N74W in the Bahamas. Gale-force W to NW winds,
and sea heights that range from 14 feet to 20 feet,
will continue for the next 12 hours or so, from 30.5N
to 31N between 59.5W and 67W. Expect elsewhere: from 27N
northward between 50W and 72W, strong to near gale-force
W winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet.
Expect fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NW to
N swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 22N
northward between 50W and 75W. Mostly fresh NE winds are
from Hispaniola to 25N between 66W and the Windward
Passage. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 25N northward between 40W
and the cold front. Please, refer to the High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml1, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of NW Liberia to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues along
06N17W 04N30W 02N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 28N93W. A warm front
extends from the low pressure center, to the SE Gulf near
24N83W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center,
beyond 24N98W at the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong, are to the east of the line that runs
from 21N97W beyond SE Louisiana. More clouds and isolated
moderate are to the NW of the same 21N97W-to-SE Louisiana
line. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 120 nm
of the 1012 mb low pressure center in the NE quadrant.
Strong NW winds are from 21N to 27N from 95W westward.

Moderate seas cover much of the area. Slight seas are in the
coastal waters of Florida and in the Straits of Florida, and
in the coastal waters of Mexico near 20N between 96W and 97W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere.

A warm front extends from a NW Gulf low pressure center to
the SE Gulf. A cold front extends from the low pressure
center to NE Mexico. The area of low pressure will track
NE to E, lifting the warm front over the northern Gulf
while the cold front moves E across the basin. Fresh to
strong winds are expected with this low and cold front.
Another cold front is forecast to move into the basin
Fri into Sat, bringing strong winds across the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean,
to 18N63W, to the coast of Venezuela along 65W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 70W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 60 nm of the coast
of Colombia between 74W and 76W. Moderate to fresh
NE to E winds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate seas are from 15N southward between 74W and
80W. Moderate seas also are from 15N to the Greater
Antilles between 69W and 80W. Slight seas cover the
rest of the area.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that
ended at 03/1200 UTC are: 0.98 in Bermuda, and 0.22 in
Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered
N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through
the weekend. S winds will increase to fresh to strong in
the NW Caribbean Fri night as a cold front passes north
of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds, and the sea heights that are
ranging from 14 feet to 20 feet, from 30.5N to 31N between
59.5W and 67W.

A surface trough passes through 31N22W, to a 1020 mb low
pressure center that is near 29N32W. The surface trough
continues from the 1020 mb low pressure center, to 27N40W
AND 27N46W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 24N northward
from 40W eastward.

A surface trough is along 24N60W, beyond 18N63W into
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 16N to 25N between 55W and 70W. Moderate to rough
seas are from 28N northward between 30W and 40W.

Fresh NE winds are within 700 nm to 900 nm to the south
of the line 25N18W 20N31W 19N42W 18N60W. Moderate or
slower winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front from 31N58W to the SE Bahamas will move
rapidly eastward, moving E of the area tonight. A broad
area of strong winds and very rough seas prevail both
ahead of and behind the front N of 27N and E of 70W,
with gales behind the front N of 30N and E of 60W.
These gales will spread E to 55W through the day.
Another cold front will move off the Florida coast
Wed night, extend from Bermuda to the NE Bahamas Thu
night, then move over the SE waters for the end of
the week. Strong winds and rough seas will again
impact northern waters on both sides of this front.
A third and stronger cold front will move into the
waters off NE Florida this weekend. Gale force
southerly winds are possible off NE Florida ahead
of the front on Sat.

$$
mt/hn
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