[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front curves southwestward from 31N63W to the Florida
Straits. Scattered showers are occurring ahead of the front.
Strong to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front north of
28N with seas in the 8 to 14 ft range. These winds and high seas
will shift eastward along with the cold front across the western
Atlantic through Wed afternoon. As the front starts to weaken at
the central Atlantic Wed night, both winds and seas should
gradually subside. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas
to 11 ft will also continue to progress eastward with the front.
Please refer to the High Seas issued by the National Hurricane
Center at  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml1 more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N17W.
The ITCZ runs from 07N17W to 04N30W to 05N35W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to the central
Gulf, where it meets a warm front extending from a 1013 mb low
pressure center over the southern tip of Texas. A recent ASCAT
pass found moderate to fresh southerly winds west of 90W, with
locally strong winds noted offshore Texas near the low. Seas
range from 4 to 6 ft in the NW Gulf north of 25N and west of
90W, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. A line of convection recently
emerged off the south Texas coast.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail north
of the front. The area of low pressure will move off the coast
of Texas tonight and track NE to E across the northern Gulf
through Wed night. The associated warm front will shift north over
the central Gulf into Wed while the low drags a cold front across
the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected with this low
and cold front. Another cold front is forecast to move into the
basin Fri night into the weekend, bringing similar fresh to strong
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades and seas to 3 ft are ongoing over the
eastern half of the basin. A surface ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico extends into the NW Caribbean, supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range over the western
half of the basin, including offshore the coast of Colombia.
There is no deep convection ongoing basin-wide.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia into the weekend.
S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the NW Caribbean Fri
night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a
Gale Warning.

Outside of the gale force winds behind the cold front, moderate
to fresh NW winds were captured in a recent ASCAT pass. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds were captured ahead of the front, north
of 27N and west of 55W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in these areas.

Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates the remainder of the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds are light
to gentle, and seas are in the 5-6 ft over this region. Over the
tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate to locally fresh, with
seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, another cold front will move off the
Florida coast Wed night, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas
Thu night, then move over the SE waters for the end of the week.
Strong winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters on
both sides of this front.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net