[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S.
tonight and track eastward across the western Atlantic, reaching
from 31N60W to 26N60W to 22N67W by early Wed. From Tue afternoon
through Wed afternoon, W to NW winds near and behind this front
will reach near-gale to gale force north of 29N between 55W and
74W. Seas under the strongest winds are expected to be 13 to 19
ft. As the front gradually weakens late Wednesday night, winds
and seas will steadily decrease. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to
06N30W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Apalachicola, FL, to the Texas/Mexico
border. Scattered showers are near the front. A 1022 mb high
pressure is centered near 25N85W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and
3 to 4 ft seas are north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds
are ahead of the front, surrounding the high pressure center.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the Yucatan Peninsula in
the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front from the Florida Big Bend to
the Lower Texas coast will stall from near Tampa Bay to offshore
the mouth of the Rio Grande Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will follow behind this front. A stronger cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed. Low pressure may form along
this front and track NE to E across the northern Gulf Wed night
and Thu. Fresh to strong winds are likely to be associated with
this low and cold front.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present
within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh ENE winds and 5 to
6 ft seas are noted in the NW Caribbean, with locally strong
winds noted in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds over the Windward Passage will
diminish tonight. High pressure building southward toward the
basin will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through Thu.
S winds will increase in the NW Caribbean Thu into Fri as a cold
front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
upcoming gales.

Fresh to strong westerly winds are noted north of 28N and west
of 70W ahead of the cold front moving offshore of the SE U.S.
coast. A high pressure center over the northern Bahamas
stretches an elongated ridge to the NE to 31N50W, supporting
gentle to moderate winds, except at the entrance of the Windward
passage, where winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 4 to 6 ft.

A cold front extends from 31N38W to 25N57W where it becomes
stationary to just NE of the Windward passage. Mostly fair
weather conditions and gentle to moderate winds prevail as high
pressure centered near 29N28W expands a ridge across the waters
ahead of the front.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front from near 28N55W
to just NE of the Windward Passage will gradually dissipate by
Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast
tonight into Tue. The front will reach from Bermuda to the SE
Bahamas by Tue night, then stall in the SE waters by Wed night.
Strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this
front N of 27N through Wed night. Winds will reach gale force
west of the front N of 30N Tue night and Wed. Another cold front
is forecast to move off the Florida coast Wed night into Thu,
extending from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu night, from near
27N55W to Hispaniola Fri night, then stall along 22N Sat. Strong
winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters on both
sides of this front.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net