[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast, currently from
31N78W TO 29N80W. The front will will reach from Bermuda to the
SE Bahamas by tonight, and from near 31N60W to 26N60W to 22N67W
by early Wed. From Tue afternoon through Wed afternoon, W to NW
winds near and behind this front will reach near-gale to gale
force north of 29N between 55W and 74W. Seas in the vicinity of
the strongest winds are expected to peak near 19 ft early Wed. As
the front gradually weakens late Wednesday night, winds and seas
will steadily decrease. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to
07N30W to 01N45W. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from north central Florida to southern Texas.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. A
1022 mb high pressure center is over the SE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail N of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are
in the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas
are in the 2-4 ft range N of the front and 1-3 ft S of the front.

For the forecast, the front will stall from south Florida to
southern Texas tonight. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
prevail north of this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf Wed. Low pressure may form along this front and
track NE to E across the northern Gulf Wed night and Thu. Fresh to
strong winds are likely to be associated with this low and cold
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, prevail off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh ENE winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, are
noted in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4
to 6 ft, seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building southward toward the
basin will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through Thu.
S winds will increase in the NW Caribbean Thu into Fri as a cold
front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale
warning.

A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast, currently from
31N78W TO 29N80W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side
of the front with seas building to near 8 ft. A dissipating
stationary front extends from 31N42W to just N of Hispaniola.
High pressure prevails elsewhere. Outside of the fresh to strong
winds associated to the cold front off Florida, gentle to moderate
winds prevail N of 20N, and moderate winds prevail S of 20N. Seas
are primarily in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front from near 27N55W
to just N of Hispaniola will gradually dissipate today. The cold
front off the NE coast of Florida will reach from Bermuda to the
SE Bahamas by tonight, then stall in the SE waters by Wed night.
Strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this
front N of 27N through Wed night. Winds will reach gale force
west of the front N of 30N tonight and Wed. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the Florida coast Wed night into Thu, extend
from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu night, from near 27N55W to
Hispaniola Fri night, then stall along 22N Sat. Strong winds and
rough seas will again impact northern waters on both sides of this
front.

$$
AL
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