[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S.
tonight and track eastward across the western Atlantic, reaching
from 31N60W to 26N60W to 22N67W by early Wed. From Tue afternoon
through Wed afternoon, W to NW winds near and behind this front
will reach near-gale to gale force north of 29N between 55W and
74W. Seas under the strongest winds are expected to be 13 to 19
ft. As the front gradually weakens late Wednesday night, winds
and seas will steadily decrease. Please refer to the High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa
near 07N12W to 04N25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 08N between 08W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Destin, FL to just south of Corpus
Christi, TX. Scattered showers are near the front. 1025 mb high
pressure is centered near 25N84W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3
to 4 ft seas are NW of the front near the Texas and western
Louisiana coasts. Moderate NW winds and 3 ft seas are found over
the NE Gulf. Moderate E winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are over the Bay
of Campeche. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker with 1-3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to weaken tonight, allowing for the
cold front to make some forward progress. The front will stall
from near Tampa Bay to offshore the mouth of the Rio Grande Tue
night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow behind this
front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf late
Tue night. Low pressure will likely form along this front Wed and
track NE to E across the northern Gulf through Wed night. Fresh
to strong winds, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms,
are likely to be associated with this low and cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are occurring over portions of the northern
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
present within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh
ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds over the Windward Passage will
diminish tonight, then return on Tue night. High pressure
building southward toward the basin will support fresh to strong
winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through the end of the
week. SE to S winds will increase in the NW Caribbean Fri into Fri
night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
upcoming gales.

A surface high pressure ridge extends across the western Atlantic
from near 31N55W to a 1022 mb high pressure center near 26N70W to
the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Light to gentle winds are near
the ridge axis. SW to W winds are beginning to increase north of
29N between 70W and 80W as a cold front approaches the area. To
the south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds are
found in the Windward Passage and southeast Bahamas. Seas are
generally 3 to 6 ft west of 65W.

A cold front extends from 31N38W to 28.5N51W to 26N59W, stationary
to 22N70W. A weak 1015 mb low pressure near 27N40W extends a
surface trough SW to 20N50W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is
analyzed near 26N29W. East of 65W, wind speeds are gentle to
moderate, with 4 to 7 ft seas. The exception is 7 to 9 ft seas in
NW swell occurring north of the cold front, north of 28N between
45W and 59W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front from 27N55W to
22N70W will gradually dissipate by Tue. A cold front is forecast
to move off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to
the SE Bahamas by Tue evening, then stall by Wed night from 25N55W
to 22N70W. Strong winds and building seas are expected on either
side of this front N of 27N through Wed night. Winds will reach
gale force west of the front N of 30N Tue night and Wed. Another
cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast late Wed
night into early Thu, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu
night, then from near 27N55W to 23N61W Fri night. Strong to near-
gale force winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters
on both sides of this front.

$$
Hagen
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