[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N18W to 00N32W to 04S37W. Strong convection is
noted from 01S to 07N between 16W and 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1027 mb high near 30N86W. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
SE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range from 3 to 4 ft
in the far SE Gulf and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will shift eastward
by midweek in response to a cold front approaching the western
Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow
can be expected in the western Gulf tonight into Thu morning. Seas
will peak near 9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish Thu
afternoon as the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu night
through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected
behind the front with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to southern Costa Rica.
Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm west of the front S of 18N.
Seas in this area are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere W of the
front. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are over the
south-central Caribbean and offshore Colombia, S of 13N. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere E of the front.

For the forecast, the front will push east today before weakening
by Thu in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front mostly off of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Thu morning. Winds will also
pulse to strong in the Windward Passage through Thu morning. This
system has loosened the pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean waters. This has decreased the areal coverage of
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean and is
expected to diminish this morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An occluded 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 33N68W. The
associated cold front extends from 31N61W to western Hispaniola.
A pronounced surface trough extends from the low to just north of
the Turks and Caicos. Scattered showers are noted between the cold
front and trough. Another trough extends from 31N73W to 28N79W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
this trough from 27N to 32N between 71W to 78W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are west of the trough, north of 27N. Fresh to
strong winds are noted N of 25N between 65W and 80W. Seas ranging
8 to 13 ft are noted N of 28N between 64W and 80W.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails. Winds are moderate to fresh
from 13N to 28N, east of 56W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
near and surrounding the Canary Islands, north of 24N and east
of 17W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are found E of 50W, and 4 to 6 ft
over the remainder of discussion waters E of the front.

For the forecast, W of 55W, the low pressure north of the
forecast waters will continue to move northward away from the
forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the
waters W of 65W through Thu as the low pressure moves farther from
the area. Rough to very rough seas will propagate into the waters
N of 20N through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher
will continue N of 29N between 66W and 70W through today. The cold
front associated with the low pressure will extend from 31N61W to
Hispaniola this evening and from 31N54W to the Anegada Passage
Thu evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
along this front through the end of the week. A strong cold front
will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri, potentially bringing
southerly gale force winds Fri into Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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