[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The forecast for Friday morning consists of near gale-force to
gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, from 29N to 31N between 74W
and 81W.

All marine interests who are in the areas must be cautious and
plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to the
Equator along 29W, to 02S41W near the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 10N southward from 43W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is to the south of
the line: from the coast of Africa along 20N, 17N31W 10N45W
10N60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1027 mb high pressure center is in south central Alabama.
Slight seas are everywhere. Broad moderate or slower anticyclonic
winds cover the entire area. Some exceptions are for: fresh N to NE
winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in some
parts of the Straits of Florida.

A 1027 mb high pressure over the Florida Panhandle extends a
ridge SSW that dominates the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift
eastward by midweek in response to a cold front approaching the
western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly
return flow can be expected in the western Gulf tonight into Thu
morning. Seas will peak near 9 ft. These winds and seas will
diminish Thu afternoon as the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu
night through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be
expected behind the front with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southernmost part of a cold front reaches the southern border
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A NE to SW oriented
stationary front continues the border area, to 15N77W, and curving
to the coast of Panama that is along 81W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are to the north of the stationary front. Moderate
or slower easterly winds are to the east of the stationary front.
Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and
isolated moderate, are within 120 nm on either side of the
stationary front.

A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 65W/66W.
Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and
isolated moderate, are within 120 nm on either side of the
stationary front.

Slight seas are from 70W eastward. Moderate seas are in much of the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for rough seas
near 12N81W, to the east of Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are
in the SW corner of the area in general. Another exception is for
slight seas in the coastal waters of NW Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe; and 0.12 in Kingston in
Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A cold front extends from Dominican Republic SW to Haiti where it
transitions to a stationary front to western Panama. Fresh to
strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front
mostly off of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through early Thu morning.
Winds will also pulse to strong in the Windward Passage through
Thu morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow the front
and affect the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic adjacent
waters this evening through Fri morning as the front moves across
Puerto Rico before moving E of the Leeward Islands Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning, for parts of the Atlantic Ocean that are
to the east of NE Florida, on Friday morning.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 33N68W. An occluded front
extends from the low pressure center to the 34N61W triple point.
A cold front extends from 34N61W, through 31N62W, to the southern
border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A surface trough
extends from the low pressure center to 21N74W in the SE Bahamas.
Rough seas are from 27N northward between the surface trough and
74W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W
westward. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are to the west of the
surface trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 24N
northward between 60W and 67W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the west of the
cold front from 22N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. The 24-hour
rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200
UTC, are: 1.07 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

An upper level NE-to-SW oriented trough extends from the Canary
Islands to 12N53W. is along 31N24W 25N28W 18N34W 13N46W 09N60W.
Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 10N northward from
60W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N47W 29N52W 24N57W. A 1032 mb
high pressure center is near 35N24W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
within 600 nm to 870 nm on either side of the line: along 20N at
the coast of Africa; 21N28W 16N42W 21N53W 21N60W. Moderate or
slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough
seas are from 12N to 25N from 30W eastward. Moderate to rough seas
are elsewhere from 20N northward from 45W eastward. Moderate seas
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 60W
eastward.

Low pressure north of the forecast waters will continue to move
northward away from the forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds
will continue across the waters W of 65W through Thu as the low
pressure moves farther from the area. Rough to very rough seas
will propagate into the waters N of 20N through the end of the
week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will continue N of 29N between 66W
and 70W through today. The cold front associated with the low
pressure will extend from 31N61W to Hispaniola this evening and
from 31N54W to the Anegada Passage Thu evening. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas are expected along this front through the end
of the week. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida
coast on Fri, potentially bringing southerly gale force winds Fri
into Sat.

$$
mt/nr
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net