[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system is centered
near 32N69W. Gale force winds are ongoing N of 29N between 70W
and 73W. Winds will diminish below gale force by the early
morning hours. Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will
propagate into the northern waters west of the low tonight and
spread south and east through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft
and higher will prevail N of 29N between 67W and 73W tonight
through Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N17W to 01N30W to 04S37W. Strong convection is
noted from 01S to 04N between 13W and 03W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1026 mb high near 28N90W. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
SE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range from 3 to 4 ft
in the far SE Gulf and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will propagate
eastward by midweek in response to a cold front approaching the
western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly
return flow can be expected in the western Gulf Wed night into Thu
morning. Seas will peak near 9 ft. These winds and seas will
diminish Thu afternoon as the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu
night through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be
expected behind the front with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to southern Costa
Rica. Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm west of the front S
of 18N. Seas in this area are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere W
of the front. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are over
the south-central Caribbean and offshore Colombia, S of 13N.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere E of
the front.

For the forecast, the front will push east through Wed before
weakening by Thu in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N
winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front from off
SE Cuba and SW Hispaniola to Costa Rica through Thu morning. This
system has loosened the pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean waters. This has decreased the areal coverage of
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean and is
expected to diminish by Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic waters.

An occluded 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 32N69W. The
associated cold front extends from 32N63W to the western
Hispaniola. A pronounced surface trough extends from the low to
the southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northerly winds are west
of the trough, north of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
between the surface trough and the cold front north of 27N.
Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the cold front south of
27N to the Greater Antilles. Moderate to rough seas are noted in
this region, west of 62W.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails. Winds are moderate to fresh
from 13N to 28N, east of 56W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
near and surrounding the Canary Islands, north of 24N and east
of 17W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are found E of 50W, and 4 to 6 ft
over the remainder of discussion waters E of the front.

For the forecast, W of 55W, fresh to strong winds will continue
across the waters W of 65W through Thu as the low pressure moves
farther from the area. Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will
propagate into the waters N of 20N tonight and spread south and
east through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will
reach 29N tonight into Wed morning. The cold front associated with
the low pressure will extend from 31N65W to Hispaniola on Wed
morning and from 31N59W to the Anegada Passage Thu morning. Fresh
to strong winds and rough seas are expected along this front
through the end of the week.

$$
Mora
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