[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Complex low pressure system is centered
over the northern Bahamas. Near-gale to gale-force winds will
prevail N of the low N of 30N between 70W and 73W through this
evening. Seas in this area range from 8 to 12 ft. Winds and seas
will gradually subside tonight.

Marine interests in the above areas need to be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 00N40W. Scattered showers are noted from
03S-06N between 27W-44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Besides the surface trough with related gales and weather
mentioned in the Special Features section, a surface ridge extends
south-southeastward from a 1022 mb high off Galveston, Texas to
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the northwestern and north-
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas
dominate the west-central and northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong W
to NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft in large northerly swell
prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, high pres across the Gulf of Mexico will move
eastward by midweek, bringing fresh to strong southerly return
flow to the western Gulf Wed night. These winds will diminish Thu
as a frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. The cold front will
move into the NW Gulf early Fri, and shift rapidly southward
across the Gulf waters through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through eastern Cuba
to the northern coast of Costa Rica. Moderate to rough seas, and
fresh to strong NW winds are to the northwest of the cold front.
The comparatively highest seas, rough, are in the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are to the northwest of the cold
front.

Strong SE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Venezuela
between 65W and 68W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are elsewhere
from 75W eastward. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are in the rest
of the Caribbean Sea. The comparatively highest sea heights, close
to rough, are between Haiti and Colombia. Moderate seas cover the
rest of the areas that are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward through
midweek before weakening. Fresh to strong N winds off Nicaragua
and Costa Rica will follow the front through midweek. Low pres N
of the area has loosened the pressure gradient across the
Caribbean waters, with fresh to strong winds mainly over the south
central Caribbean. Areal coverage of the fresh to locally strong
winds in the south central Caribbean will further decrease through
the middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about the
ongoing Gale Warning.

A frontal boundary curves southwestward from a 1011 mb low
southwest of Bermuda near 31N67W to a 1007 mb low over the
northern Bahamas, then continues to beyond eastern Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near these
features mainly W of 68W.

Outside the Gale Warning, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7
to 9 ft are found near the lows/frontal boundary, W of 62W. A
broad Atlantic ridge stretching southwestward across the remainder
of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 38N25W.
Rough to very rough seas prevail E of 58W, with highest seas
mainly N of 28N between 23W-30W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
prevail across this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, Low pressure N of the Bahamas will
lift north of 31N by Tue night. Gale force winds, and rough seas,
north of the low will continue through early this evening, with
conditions starting to improve tonight. The cold front that extends
from the low to E Cuba will continue to shift eastward through
the week. A broad area of fresh to strong northwest winds will
diminish over the waters northeast of the Bahamas by midweek.

$$
ERA
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