[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 28N76W, just to the north of
the NW Bahamas. A cold front passes through 31N68W to the 1007 mb
low pressure center. The cold front continues from the 1007 mb low
pressure center, through the Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond Cuba near
21N78W, and into the Caribbean Sea. The current forecast consists
of gale-force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas, from
30N northward between 71W and 74W. Expect elsewhere from 26N
northward between 72W and 81W: strong to near gale-force N to NE
winds, and rough seas. Expect also from 26N northward between 66W
and 75W: strong to near gale-force SW winds, and rough seas.
Expect these marine conditions for the next 18 hours or so, for
the rest of today and into tonight. The 24-hour rainfall totals
in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.97 in
Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone close to 08N12W, and to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W, to the Equator along 30W, to 01S40W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface low pressure extends from the 28N76W Atlantic Ocean
low pressure center, through the Straits of Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico. A 1024 mb high pressure center is in SW
Mississippi. A weakening stationary front is inland in Mexico,
along 18N96W 22N100W 27N100W. Precipitation: broken low level to
middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 28N
southward. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from 27N
southward. Slight seas are elsewhere. The comparatively highest
sea heights are in the SE Gulf. Earlier fresh to strong northerly
winds that were in the central sections of the Gulf, have given
way to mostly moderate to some fresh northerly winds in the same
area. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area.

High pres is building across the Gulf of Mexico. Rough seas near
the Yucatan channel will subside by this afternoon. The area of
high pressure will move eastward by midweek, bringing fresh to
strong southerly return flow to the western Gulf Wed night. These
winds will diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the NW
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through Cuba near
21N78W, to 18N80W, and to the SE coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
within 360 nm to the northwest of the cold front, and from 10N
southward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to rough
seas, and fresh to strong NW winds, are to the northwest of the
cold front. The comparatively highest seas, rough, are in the
Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NW winds are to the northwest
of the cold front.

Strong SE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Venezuela
between 65W and 68W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are elsewhere
from 75W eastward. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are in the rest
of the Caribbean Sea. The comparatively highest sea heights, close
to rough, are between Haiti and Colombia. Moderate seas cover the
rest of the areas that are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 19/1200 UTC, are: 1.29 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.09 in
Montego Bay in Jamaica, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A cold front from Central Cuba to southern Nicaragua will reach
from western Hispaniola to northeast Costa Rica by Tue night where
it will weaken. Fresh to strong N winds winds will follow the
front. Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will
decrease in areal coverage through the middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds for the next 18 hour or so.

An upper level trough is along 31N24W 25N28W 18N34W 13N46W
09N60W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, is from 15N northward
between 24W and 40W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 14N
northward from 60W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N42W 28N55W 24N60W to 22N66W.

Strong NE winds are from 26N northward between 21W and 28W. Fresh
to strong NE winds are: from 03N northward between 30W and 47W;
from 08N to 14N between 50W and 57W; and elsewhere from 23N
northward from 30W eastward. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder
of the area that is from 15N northward from 45W eastward; and from
26N southward between 35W and 60W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
between 60W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough to very rough seas are from 18N
northward from 30W eastward. Rough seas cover the rest of the
waters that are from 48W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from
22N southward between 48W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the rest
of the Atlantic Ocean.

Low pressure N of the Bahamas will lift north of 31N by Tue
night. Gale force winds, and rough seas, north of the low will
continue today with conditions starting to improve tonight. A cold
front extends from the low to central Cuba. The front will
continue to shift eastward through the week. A broad area of fresh
to strong northwest winds will diminish over the waters northeast
of the Bahamas by midweek.

$$
mt/al
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