[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A 1007 mb low pressure is over the northern Bahamas. ASCAT earlier
tonight revealed near-gale to gale- force N to NE winds north of
this low from 28N to 29N between 77W and the central Florida east
coast. Seas in this area range from 8 to 12 ft. Gale force winds
will continue through tonight as the low slowly tracks northeast
over the waters along with rough seas. The low will move north of
the area by Tue night. However, the cold front will slowly press
eastward over the waters. Fresh to strong winds along the front
and south of the low will continue Thu. Rough seas will also
persist through the end of the week with this system.

Marine interests in the above areas need to be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the African Continent. An ITCZ
extends southwestward from southwest of Liberia at 03N14W to
beyond 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the
ITCZ from 05S to 05N between 13W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends across the southeast Gulf with fresh winds
prevailing and rough seas. A surface ridge extends south-
southeastward from a 1023 mb high off Galveston, Texas to the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle northerly winds and seas at 3 to
5 ft are present at the northwestern and north- central Gulf.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas dominate the
west- central and northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong W to NW to N
winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft in large northerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, low pressure has moved east of the Gulf of
Mexico as the cold front also exited the basin. Rough seas
continue near the Yucatan channel but will subside by this
afternoon. As the front moves away from the area today, marine
conditions will improve across the basin. Fresh southerly return
flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the
high shifts eastward. These winds diminish Thu as a frontal
boundary approaches the NW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front curves southwestward from central Cuba to northern
Honduras. Scattered showers are found near and up to 160 nm
northwest of this feature. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas
of 8 to 13 ft are evident across the Yucatan Channel, and near
the Island of Youth and coast of the Yucatan Peninsula/Belize. For
the rest of the western basin, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas exist. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft are present at the central basin. Moderate to fresh E to
ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail at the eastern basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will push farther southeast into
the basin over the next few days. The front will extend from
eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua tonight, and from western
Hispaniola to northeast Costa Rica by Tue night. Fresh to strong N
winds winds will follow the front, reaching as far south as the
Nicaragua coast. Fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean
will continue over the next few days but diminish in size
significantly as the pressure gradient between the high pressure
the Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia gets interrupted by
the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A frontal boundary curves southwestward from a 1010 mb low
southwest of Bermuda near 31N69W to a 1007 mb low over the
northern Bahamas, then continues to beyond central Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up
to 140 nm northwest of this boundary. A surface trough at the
central Atlantic is triggering scattered showers north of 27N
between 45W and 49W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning, a broad Atlantic Ridge stretching
southwestward from a 1025 mb Azores High across 28N53W to near
the southeast Bahamas. Gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds are
evident up across the central Atlantic. In the area, 7 to 11 ft
seas in large NW swell are found north of 20N between 30W and 50W,
and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are evident north of
20N between 50W and 75W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong
NNE to NE winds and seas at 8 to 13 ft in large NW swell are
present north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W.
For the tropical Atlantic including the Cabo Verde Islands, fresh
NNE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in large northerly swell
exist from 10N to 20N/21N between the Africa coast and Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the 1007 mb low pressure currently
over the northwest Bahamas will lift north of 31N by Tue night.
Gale force winds are occurring north of the low and front and will
continue through tonight. Rough seas are also noted in this area.
The front will stretch from the low pressure near 29N74W to
eastern Cuba by tonight, and from the low pressure near 31N69W to
western Hispaniola Tue evening. A broad area of fresh to strong
northwest winds will over the waters northeast of the Bahamas on
Wed. These winds will shift to the northeast part of the area Thu
as fresh southwest to west winds develop over the waters northeast
of northern Florida in advance of the next frontal system.

$$
AReinhart
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