[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is centered
about 240 nm NE of the N Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient
between the low and high pressure building over the Gulf of
Mexico will support near-gale force winds with gusts to gale
force tonight offshore SE Florida. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are
expected. Winds will diminish below gale force by the early
morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 00N40W. Scattered showers are noted from
03S-06N between 27W-44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
dominates the basin. Fresh northerly winds are noted in the SE
Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft south of 26N and 3 ft or less north of 26N. Seas
to 6 ft continue within the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pres across the Gulf of Mexico will move
eastward by midweek. This will bring fresh to strong southerly
return flow to the western Gulf Wed night. These winds will
diminish Thu as a frontal boundary approaches the NW Gulf. The
cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Fri, and shift
rapidly
southward across the Gulf waters through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through eastern
Cuba to the south-central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are noted offshore Honduras and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are noted offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela. Elsewhere
winds are moderate to fresh. Moderate seas prevail over the
basin, with the highest seas offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift eastward through
midweek before weakening. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas off Nicaragua and Costa Rica will follow the front
through Wed night. Low pres N of the area has loosened the
pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters, with fresh to
strong winds mainly over the south central Caribbean. Areal
coverage of the fresh to locally strong winds in the south central
Caribbean will further decrease through the middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the ongoing Gale
Warning offshore SE Florida.

A cold front extends from the 1013 mb low pressure described in
the special features section above. The cold front extends from
29N73W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong westerly winds are behind
the front south of 27N. Strong to near gale force northerly winds
are noted behind the low and north of the low for the remainder
of the AOR to 31N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of
the low north of 27N to 65W. 8 to 10 ft seas are between Florida
and the Bahamas, and north of 27N and west of 65W.

Elsewhere, a subtropical ridge extending from near the Azores to
the Greater Antilles supports fresh easterly winds across most
of the Atlantic waters east of 50W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of 24N and east of 30W,
with seas up to 12 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure N of the Bahamas
will lift north of 31N by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas north of the low will diminish overnight. A cold front
extends from the low to E Cuba. The front will continue to shift
eastward through the week. A broad area of fresh to strong
northwest winds will diminish over the waters northeast of the
Bahamas by midweek.

$$
Mora
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