[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between 1023 mb high
pressure located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower
pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea is
supporting gale-force winds of up to 35 kt offshore Colombia along
with seas to 11 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to just
below gale-force around 12Z this morning. Afterward, strong trade
winds will persist through early next week across this area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front just inland the
Texas coast will move into the NW Gulf this morning, with strong
to near gale force winds in the wake of the front. The cold front
will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat
afternoon and from near Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula
early Sun. The front will push east of the basin by Sun night.
Weak low pressure will develop along the front in the NW Gulf
today and track eastward across the basin during the weekend. The
strong to near gale winds will spread across most of basin through
Sun night. Gale force winds will develop behind the cold front
offshore of Tampico, Mexico Sat afternoon and Veracruz, Mexico by
Sat evening. Near gale to gale force winds are also possible along
the cold front in the central Gulf as it sweeps across the basin.
Rough to very rough seas will spread across most of the Gulf Sat
through Sun. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high
pressure settles in across the region. Fresh southerly return flow
is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high
shifts eastward.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell
generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic  today.
Very rough to high seas of 12-20 ft with a period of 12-15 seconds
are affecting the waters north of 22N and east of about 55W. These
seas are forecast to subside from west to east below 12 ft
tonight, but seas 8 ft or greater will continue to dominate the
the waters east of about 60W.

Marine interests in the above areas are urged to monitor these
situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at Guinea near 11N16W, and
continues southwestward to near 03N25W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to below the Equator at 28W and to 02S39W. Scattered
moderate convection from 01N to 03N between 28W-37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale
Warning.

Regional radar shows a large area of stratiform rain across the
entire northern Gulf from northwest Mexico to north Florida. This
is associated with moist SW flow ahead of a mid to upper-level
trough approaching from the west. The pattern is supporting a
strong cold front that is over the Texas coastal plains early
his morning. A weak ridge is present over the NE Gulf, while
a trough over the central Gulf extends from near 28N89W to
a 1011 mb low that is just inland Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen.
A rather weak pressure gradient over the basin is maintaining
mostly gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin. The
exception will soon be in the NW Gulf as the cold front makes
its way into that part of the Gulf very soon, winds behind it
will abruptly become north to northeast at strong to near gale
speeds.

For the forecast, marine conditions across the Gulf of Mexico
will be associated with a strong cold front moving across the
region this upcoming weekend. The front is forecast to bring
gale force winds and very rough seas. Please read the Special
Features section for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about gale conditions
near the coast of Colombia that are forecast to end this morning.

High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the
Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong winds across the
south-central Caribbean. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes
show 25-30 kt winds off the coast of Colombia roughly between
Barranquilla and Cartagena, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere
across the southern Caribbean. Overnight buoy observations and
altimeter satellite data also show rough seas of 8-10 ft in this
area. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
noted elsewhere per latest ASCAT satellite data passes.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds off the Colombia
coast will diminish early this morning. Strong trade winds will
persist through early next week across this area. A cold front
will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sun into early and
across the central Caribbean through midweek while weakening.
Fresh northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front.
Very rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun
night, then subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event.

A 1021 high center is analyzed near 28N57W. A ridge extends west-
southwestward from it to 27N67W and to near the central Bahamas.
Farther east, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N34W to 24N45W
and to near 22N58W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 24N44W
to 15N50W. The gradient associated to the high pressure center is
allowing for mostly gentle to moderate winds between 43W-57W.
west of 35W. In addition to the large wave- heights described
above in the Special Features section, wave heights of 5-7 ft
south of 22N are due to a a mix of northwest swell with northeast
wind waves generated by the trade winds. In the far eastern
Atlantic, fresh to strong northeast winds are indicated by an
overnight ASCAT data pass to be present off the coast of northwest
Africa. Seas of 8-12 ft due to a long-period northwest swell are
north of 20N and east of 35W. Wave heights elsewhere are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas north of 20N and east
of 65W will shift east and southeast of the forecast waters by
this evening. A cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on
Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E
of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along the
front near the Bahamas Sun night into Mon and track northeastward
to north of 31N by late Tue. Strong winds and rough seas are
possible with this low.

$$
Aguirre
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