[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171654
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front entered the Gulf
of Mexico this morning, and is currently analyzed from Panama
City, Florida to Carboneras, Mexico. NW to N gale force winds to
40 kt are currently impacting the western Gulf waters offshore
Tampico, Mexico. Seas currently 8-9 ft will quickly build to 11-14
ft by tomorrow morning. Gales and very rough seas will spread
southward to the offshore waters of Veracruz, Mexico tonight.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Sun afternoon,
with seas forecast to subside beginning Sun night. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the Agadir Offshore Zone, effective now through 18/0600 UTC.
NE winds to Force 8 with severe gusts and rough to very rough
seas are expected. For more information, please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell
generated by a low pressure system north of the forecast waters
will continue to impact the central Atlantic today. Very rough
seas of 12-15 ft with a period of 12-15 seconds are affecting the
waters north of 20N east of 47W. These seas are forecast to
subside from west to east below 12 ft tonight, but elevated seas
of 8-10 ft will continue to prevail across the waters east of 60W
through tomorrow. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W, and continues
southwestward to near 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 03N between
23W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

A strong cold front entered the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and
is currently analyzed from Panama City, Florida to Carboneras,
Mexico. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NW winds
have been reported by surface observations in the wake of the
front. As a result of these winds, seas are currently 4-7 ft and
building. Ahead of the front, 1013 mb low pressure is centered
near 28N86W. This low pressure will be absorbed by the front later
this afternoon. Gentle to moderate S winds are ahead of the front
with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, winds will increase to strong to near gale
force speeds behind the cold front. The cold front will stretch
from near Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning,
and gales will begin to subside. Rough to very rough seas will
spread across most of the Gulf through Sun. Conditions will begin
to improve by Mon as high pressure settles in across the region.
Fresh southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed
and Wed night as the high shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia has expired.

High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the
Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong trades across
the south-central Caribbean. Satellite altimeter data from this
morning shows seas are 8-10 ft from 10N to 16N between 66W and
80W. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas are elsewhere in the
southwest, central, and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds
and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the above winds and seas will prevail through
early next week. A cold front will move across the northwestern
Caribbean Sun into early Mon and across the central Caribbean
through the middle of next week, while weakening. Fresh to locally
strong northwest to north winds will follow the front. Rough to
very rough seas are expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun
night, with gradually subsiding seas thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event.

1025 mb high pressure is near 30N40W. A dissipating stationary
front is from 31N33W to 21N60W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
across the tropical Atlantic, increasing to locally fresh speeds
south of 15N. Seas 8-12 ft in NW swell are north of a line from
31N10W to 08N40W to 18N61W to 31N61W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas N of 18N and E of 65W
will shift E and SE of the forecast waters by tonight. A cold
front will emerge off the Florida coast today, bringing fresh to
strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W into early next
week. Low pressure is likely to form between the Bahamas and
Florida Sun night into Mon, then track NE and out of the area by
late Tue. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are
possible with this low.

$$
Mahoney
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