[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between 1023 mb high
pressure located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower
pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea is
supporting gale-force winds offshore Colombia. These winds are
forecast to peak at 35 kt this morning with seas of 11 or 12 ft.
Strong trade winds will persist through early next week across
this area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Texas coast this morning, with strong to near gale force
winds following the front in the NW Gulf across most of basin
through Sun night. Gale force winds will develop behind the cold
front offshore of Tampico, Mexico this afternoon and Veracruz,
Mexico by this evening. Near gale to gale force winds are also
possible along the cold front in the central Gulf as it sweeps
across the basin. Rough to very rough seas will spread across most
of the Gulf through Sun. Weak low pressure will develop along the
front in the NW Gulf today and track eastward across the basin
during the weekend. The cold front will reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from near
Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun. The front will
push east of the basin by Sun night. Conditions will begin to
improve by Mon as high pressure settles across the area. Fresh
southerly return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed
night as the high shifts eastward.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell
generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic through
today. Very rough to high seas of 12 to 20 ft are currently
affecting the waters north of 22N and east of 60W. Seas are
forecast to subside from west to east below 12 ft tonight night,
but seas 8 ft or greater will continue to dominate the most of the
waters east of 60W.

Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor these
situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Guinea near 11N114W,
then extends southwestward to near 01N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N25W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale
Warning.

Regional radar shows a large area of stratiform rain across the
entire northern Gulf from northwest Mexico to north Florida. This
is associated with moist SW flow ahead of a mid to upper level
trough approaching from the west. The pattern is supporting a
strong cold front moving into the coastal plains of Texas this
morning. A weak ridge is evident over the northeast Gulf, and weak
troughing is setting up over the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, allowing gentle breezes and slight seas across the
basin.

For the forecast, marine conditions across the Gulf of Mexico
will be associated with a strong cold front moving across the
region this upcoming weekend. The front is forecast to bring
gale force winds and very rough seas. Please read the Special
Features section for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing gale
conditions near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the basin combined with the Colombian low
continue to support fresh to strong winds across the south-
central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
confirmed the presence of 25 to 30 kt winds off the coast of
Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena, with fresh to strong
winds elsewhere across the southern Caribbean. Buoy observations
and altimeter satellite data also show rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in
this area. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, beside the gales described in the Special
Features section above, strong trade winds will persist through
early next week across this area. The next cold front will move
across the NW Caribbean Sun into Mon, bringing moderate to locally
fresh winds with moderate to potentially rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event.

A surface ridge extends along roughly 28N anchored by 1023 mb
high pressure centered near 28N55W. Farther east, a cold front
reaches from 31N35W to near 23N50W. The pattern is supporting
mostly gentle to moderate winds west of 35W. In addition to the
large wave-heights described above in the Special Features
section, combined seas are 5 to 7 ft south of 22N in a mix of NW
swell and NE wind waves related to trade wind flow. Farther east,
fresh to strong NE winds are noted off the coast of northwest
Africa. Combined seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell north of 20N and
east of 35W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the very rough to high seas north
of 23N and east of 65W will move east of the forecast waters today.
Moderate to rough seas will continue through early next week.
Another cold front will emerge off the Florida coast today,
bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas north of 25N and
east of 70W through early next week. Low pressure may form along
the front near the Bahamas Sun night into Mon and track
northeastward late Tue. Strong winds and rough seas are possible
with this low.

$$
Christensen
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