[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The most recent scatterometer pass shows
fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, particularly
from 10.5N to 16N, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt near
the coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian will support
pulsing winds to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight
and again Fri night. Seas will build to near 13 ft with the
strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period NW swell generated
by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern Atlantic
is impacting the central Atlantic forecast area. Very rough to
high seas will accompany this swell event tonight, covering the
roughly the waters N of 26N and E of 63W. On Thu, an altimeter
pass captured wave heights up to 22 ft near 31N47W. This swell
event will continue to propagate southward, and mainly across the
waters E of 60W over the next couple of days. By Fri morning,
seas of 12 to 22 ft are expected over the area N of 24N and E of
62W. The areal coverage of 12 ft seas will begin to decrease on
Sat, with seas below 12 ft by Sat night. At that time, seas in
excess of 8 ft will dominate much of the region E of 60W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to near 00N40W. Convection
is limited.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters. This pattern is supporting
light to gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate
easterly winds over the SE Gulf, mainly from 24N to 27N and E of
84W to the coast of SW Florida. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these
winds, and in the central Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas are
in the 1 to 3 ft range. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is
transporting abundant tropical moisture across Mexico into the
northern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward
through Fri. Weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf on
Sat and track eastward across the Gulf during the weekend. Its
associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the
Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The
front is expected to push east of the basin by Sun night. Fresh
to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind
the front through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible in
the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in
the western Gulf. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high
pressure settles across the area. Meanwhile, mostly fresh winds
will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the
evening today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on ongoing
gale conditions off Colombia.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
Isolated showers are possible near the front. A recent scatterometer
pass reveals fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central
Caribbean along with rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds will to pulse off
the Colombia coast tonight and Fri night. Strong trade winds will
persist through early next week across this area. Meanwhile, a
stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras.
The front will gradually dissipate through late tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event over the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N43W to the Turks and Caicos
Islands, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues
to eastern Cuba. A band of mainly low clouds, with possible
showers is associated with the front. Satellite derived wind data
indicate strong to near gale force winds N of 25N and ahead of
the front to about 42W. Fresh to strong Nw winds are behind the
front to near 62W. Very rough to high seas follow the front as
described in the Special Features section. High pressure, in the
wake of the front, dominates the western Atlantic while a 1025
mb high pressure is centered just W of the Madeira Islands,
extending ridge across the east and central Atlantic ahead of
the front. Light and variable winds are under the influence of
the ridge. Moderate trades are seen across the tropical Atlantic
wit seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
reach from 31N40W to north of Hispaniola by Fri morning and will
weaken by Fri night. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the
front N of 25N will move E of 55W through late tonight and
diminish by Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.
Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 75W will move E and SE
of the forecast waters on Sat. Moderate to rough seas will
continue through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to strong winds and
rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through early next week. Low
pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas.

$$
GR
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