[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
Tight gradient between the 1023 mb Bermuda High near 30N71W and
1009 mb Colombian Low is maintaining fresh to strong ENE winds in
the south-central Caribbean Sea off northwestern Colombia. These
winds are going to peak at near-gale to gale force during the
nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Fri night, as
indicated by the latest ASCAT satellite derived wind data. Seas in
this area are ranging from 10 to 12 ft.

Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large, long-period NW swell generated by a storm-force low
pressure system over the northern Atlantic will continue to impact
the central Atlantic through Sat. Expect very rough to high seas
of 12 to 21 ft currently north of 25N between 35W and 65W to
spread farther southward to near 21N on Sat. As this swell
gradually decays Fri and Sat, it should allow seas to subside to
between 12 and 16 ft and shift east of 50W by Sat afternoon. Seas
west of 35W should subside below 12 ft Sat night or early Sun
morning.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf
Sat morning, then moves southeastward across the central and
eastern Gulf through early next week. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds are expected to follow this front, peaking at near-gale to
gale force across the west-central and central Gulf Sat night into
early Sun morning. Seas under the strongest winds are anticipated
to peak at 12 to 15 ft.

Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor these
situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Gambia-Guinea Bissau
border, then extends southwestward to 02N23W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 02N23W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
found near both features from 01N to 04N between 16W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale
Warning.

Southwesterly upper-level flow is streaming thick cirrus across
the west-central and northern Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface
ridge runs southwestward from a 1021 mb high near the Alabama-
Georgia border to near Veracruz, Mexico. Convergent southerly
winds are triggering scattered showers at the western Bay of
Campeche and off Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 3 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the central and
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward
through Fri. Weak low pressure will develop over the northwestern
Gulf on Sat and track eastward across the Gulf during the weekend.
Its associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the
Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The
front is expected to push east of the basin by Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the
front through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible in the
wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the
western Gulf. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high
pressure settles across the area. Meanwhile, fresh north to
northeast winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will
diminish Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A dissipating stationary front extends west-southwestward from
eastern Cuba to north of the Gulf of Honduras. Patchy light
showers are seen near this front. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present for the western
basin, including the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and
6 to 9 ft seas exist at the central basin. Gentle to moderate E
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean. Strong trade winds off northwest
Colombia will persist from Sat through early next week. The
stationary front will dissipate by late tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning on a
Significant Swell event.

A cold front extends southwestward from the Azores across 31N42W
to 23N58W, then continues westward as a stationary front to beyond
the southeast Bahamas. Scattered showers are evident near and up
to 80 nm northwest of the cold front. Patchy showers are noted
near and up to 80 nm north of the stationary front. Convergent
southerly winds are triggering scattered showers southeast of the
cold front, up to 120 nm southeast of a line from 31N41W to
24N53W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the seas caused by the large NW swell, fresh to strong
NW to N winds are present behind the cold front to 55W. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are seen up to 200 nm
southeast of the cold front. Gentle with locally moderate winds
and 7 to 10 ft seas in large N swell exist north of 23N between
55W and the Florida coast. Moderate with locally fresh ENE winds
and seas at 4 to 7 ft persist from 20N to 23N between 55W and the
Bahamas. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1027 mb high
northwest of the Canary Islands at 32N20W to just east of the
Leeward Islands. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in
moderate northerly swell are present up to 200 nm along either
side of the ridge axis. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate
north of 10N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 05N to 17N/20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found.
Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become stationary from near 23N55W to 22N61W on Fri and weaken
through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the
front north of 25N will move east of 55W through late tonight and
diminish by Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.
Moderate to rough seas will continue this weekend. Another cold
front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing fresh to
strong winds and rough seas north of 25N and east of 70W through
early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the
Bahamas and track northeastward late Tue.

$$

Chan
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