[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151625
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea and across South America has resulted in a
tightening of the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Trade
winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Fri night. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the period of
gale force winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period NW swell generated
from a storm-force low over the northern Atlantic will impact the
central Atlantic. Very rough to high seas will accompany this
swell tonight over the discussion waters north of 30N between 45W
and 55W. An early morning altimeter pass captured wave heights up
to 22 ft near 31N47W. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will
propagate southeastward during he next couple of days, covering
the waters roughly north of 23N between 25W and 60W late Fri. The
areal coverage of 12 ft seas will begin to decrease as seas
gradually subside below 12 ft through the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 07N20W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to near 00N45W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of the
Equator between 20W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed north of these features to 19N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf extending from
high pressure centered just offshore South Carolina. This pattern
is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, and generally light to gentle breezes
elsewhere. Mainly slight seas are observed across the basin,
except for moderate seas in the southeastern Gulf and eastern Bay
of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is observed across the
far northern Gulf north of 28N.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward
through Fri. Weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf on
Sat and track eastward across the Gulf through late Sat. Its
associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa Bay, Florida
to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, from the Florida Keys to
the northeast Yucatan Peninsula early Sun, and move east of the
basin by late Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough
seas are expected behind the front through the weekend. Gale force
winds are possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming
weekend, especially in the western Gulf. High pressure will settle
in across the area starting late Sun. Meanwhile, mostly fresh
winds will pulse off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in
the afternoon today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on ongoing
gale conditions off Colombia.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to central Honduras.
Isolated showers are possible near the front. A recent
scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong NE winds across the
south-central Caribbean along with rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate breezes and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected to pulse
off the Colombia coast tonight and Fri night. Strong trade winds
will persist through early next week across this area. Meanwhile,
a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to northeast
Honduras. The front will gradually dissipate through late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
significant swell over the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N44W to the Turks and Caicos
Islands, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues
to eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted on both
sides of the front north of 26N between 42W and 52W, with a recent
scatterometer pass revealing a small area of near-gale force SW
winds ahead of the front to 43W and north of 29N. Elsewhere along
the front, fresh to strong SW winds are present east of the front
to near 41W and north of 24N while fresh to strong W to NW winds
are west of the front to 70W, mainly north of 28N. An altimeter
pass early this morning depicts the large NW swell discussed in
the Special Features section approaching the area from the north,
mainly between 40W and 70W. West of 70W, moderate NE winds and
mainly moderate seas prevail.

Across the eastern Atlantic, a 1025 mb high center is analyzed
near 31N20W. This high is part of a broader ridge extending across
the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 55W, supporting
mostly moderate trade winds south of 15N and gentle breezes
elsewhere along with moderate seas due to long-period NW to N
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from 31N38W to north of Puerto Rico by Fri morning and will
weaken by Fri night. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the
front N of 29N will move E of 55W through late tonight and
diminish by Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.
Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 75W will mostly move E
and SE of the forecast waters on Sat. Moderate to rough seas will
continue through the weekend. Another cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast later in the weekend, bringing fresh to strong
winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through Mon. Low
pressure may form along the front near the Bahamas.

$$
Nepaul
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