[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1022
mb high pressure system south of Bermuda and lower pressures in NW
South America are resulting in strong to near gale-force NE-E
winds and rough to very rough seas from 11N to 14N and between
73W and 78W, offshore Colombia. Nocturnal winds will increase to
gale-force tonight across this area, with seas will peaking around
12 early Mon morning. These conditions will gradually diminishing
Mon through Tue as the high pressure center drifts eastward and
the pressure gradient weakens.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A strong non-tropical cyclone
in the north Atlantic is producing a large area of long period N
to NE swell across the regional Atlantic waters E of 70W. This is
resulting in seas of 12-14 ft occurring N of 27N and between 35W
and 51W. This swell will gradually fade through Mon, with seas
falling below 12 ft west of 35W tonight.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the Texas
coast late early this evening, and across the Gulf Basin tonight
through through Tue morning. Behind the front, NW winds will
briefly increase to near gale-force with frequent gusts to gale-
force offshore of Mexico tonight between Brownsville and Cabo
Rojo, Mexico, and then to gale-force Mon morning off the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W. Peak seas are
expected to build to 12 ft with and behind the gale-force winds on
Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning, and move to
the southeast of the Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will
build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving
marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 06.5N19W.
The ITCZ extends from 06.5N19W to 02N33W and to 00.5N50W. Widely
scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm N of the
ITCZ between 41W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A broad ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward to the
west-central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh,
moist southerly winds across the Gulf. Multi-layered clouds are
producing overcast skies across the NW third of the basin, ahead
of the front. Scattered moderate elevated convection is streaming
northeastward across the NW Gulf and into SE Louisiana, supported
by a jetstream segment. Oil platforms over the northwest Gulf to
Louisiana have been reporting visibility as low as 3 to 5 nm in
haze. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in SE swell between 84W and
96W, and up to 8 ft just N of the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic into the central Gulf will shift east over the next 24
hours ahead of a cold front that is currently entering the NW Gulf
region. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Mon morning, and exit the basin by midday Tue. Fresh to
strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front. Gale-force
winds are forecast off Veracruz on Mon morning while frequent
gusts to gale force are expected elsewhere in the wake of the
front. Marine conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge
builds across the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters.

Western Atlantic high pressure centered north of the Caribbean
islands extends a broad ridge southward across the region. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW
South America are resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade
winds over the Caribbean basin E of 80W, and fresh to locally
strong SE to S winds across the NW basin. Winds offshore of
NW Colombia are presently just below gale-force winds as
discussed in the Special Features section. The strongest winds
outside of the south-central Caribbean are evident in the north-
central Caribbean, and across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 8-11
ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean waters, 6-8 ft N of 15N,
and 7-9 ft across the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, NE swell will continue to impact the NE
Caribbean and passages as well as the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles through Mon before subsiding on Tue. The pressure
gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure
over northern Colombia will support gale-force winds and rough
seas near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds
will persist across the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras, through early Mon afternoon. A cold front will enter the
NW Caribbean midday Tue, then reach from central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras on Wed while dissipating. Gale conditions are
possible near the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night as
high pressure builds again in the wake of the front and N of the
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic.

A ridge extends across the western Atlantic along roughly 27N
anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure system south of Bermuda. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
south of 21N and west of 50W, and fresh SE to S winds west of the
ridge from the central Bahamas north and westward to offshore of
Georgia. Seas remain 7-10 ft S of 21N and E of 70W, 8 to 14 ft
elsewhere E of 70W, and 6-9 ft in NE swell W of 70W.

Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near
25N35W and continues southwestward as a frontal trough to the
Lesser Antilles near 14.5N60.5W. Isolated showers are noted near
the boundary. Fresh westerly winds are present north of 30N and
between the front and 48W. Fresh SW winds are occurring ahead of
the front to 27W and north of 27N, along with moderate seas.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located near 28N63W dominates
most of the forecast region. This system will move eastward across
the central Atlantic through mid-week. Strong to near-gale force
S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon and Mon night
ahead of the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S. and
south Florida Tue morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to the northwest Bahamas by Tue evening, from 31N60W to the
central Bahamas by Wed morning, and from 27N55W to the SE Bahamas
by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side
of the front, and mainly N of 27N through at least Tue night.

$$
Stripling
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