[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Mariners are urged to exercise caution during the next 12 hours to
24 hours or so, in the central Atlantic Ocean, due to the
hazardous marine conditions of the current swell event.

The sea heights are 12 feet or higher, from 27N northward between
35W and 60W. These conditions are to the northwest of the current
31N30W 23N40W 20N45W cold front, and surface trough from 20N45W
14N62W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been
reaching 16 feet from 30N northward between 50W and 60W. Rough
seas, from 8 feet and higher, are elsewhere from the Greater
Antilles northward from 72W eastward, and to the northwest of the
cold front/surface trough. The swell will move to the southeast
today, with seas falling to less than 12 feet from 35W westward
tonight. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect: near gale-force to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to
very rough seas, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, in the
coastal waters of Colombia, from tonight until Sunday morning.
Expect, in general, strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and
rough seas, elsewhere, in the central two-thirds of the Caribbean
Sea, during the next 24 hours or so.

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Expect by Monday morning: a cold front 30N89W 19N95W. Near gale-
force to gale-force NW to N winds, and building rough seas, from
26N southward to the west of the cold front. Expect elsewhere to
the west of the cold front: fresh to strong NW to N winds, and
rough seas. Expect: fresh to strong S to SW winds, and rough seas,
from 22N to 30N between 84W and 89W and to the east of the cold
front, including in the Yucatan Channel.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal plains of
Sierra Leone, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to
02N30W 01N40W, to the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02S to 02N between
48W and 53W including in Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 14N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
forecast for gale-force winds on Monday morning.

A frontal boundary is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from
Mississippi to the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, are to the north of the line 20N97W 30N81W, from
the coast of Mexico to NE Florida.

IFR to MVFR conditions, and some areas of LIFR, are in the
coastal plains/the coastal waters, from the Deep South of Texas
to Alabama, including in the NW Gulf of Mexico platforms. Moderate
to fresh SE winds span the area. Moderate seas are in the central
one-third of the area, and off the coast of NE Mexico. Slight
seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the
central Gulf will shift east this morning ahead of a cold front
that will move off the Texas coast late today. The front will
across the Gulf by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will
follow the front, reaching gale force off Veracruz early Mon.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east
across the Gulf Wed and Thu as a ridge dominates the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
forecast for gale-force wind conditions in the coastal waters of
Colombia for tonight. Rough to very rough seas are in the
southern half of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea.

NE near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 77W. Rough to very rough seas are in the
southern half of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to rough seas are in the rest of the central one-third of
the area. Mostly fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the area.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 11/1200 UTC, are: 1.53 in Guadeloupe; 0.16 in Curacao; and
0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Large N to NE swell from the Atlantic will continue to impact the
NE Caribbean and passages through late today before subsiding on
Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area
and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force
winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds
will develop across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and gradually
spread through the Yucatan Channel through Mon as the Atlantic
high pressure shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold
front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will
enter the NW Caribbean on Tue, then stall from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Wed and dissipate. Gale conditions are
possible near the coast of Colombia Wed night and Thu night as
high pressure builds again in the wake of the front and N of the
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ongoing SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.

A cold front is along 31N30W 23N40W 20N45W. A surface trough
continues from 20N45W,to 16N54W, and to 14N62W in the eastern
Caribbean Sea. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N63W. A
1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N19W, just to the west of
the Canary Islands. The areas of high pressure are on either side
of the cold front/surface trough.

Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic winds are from 50W
westward, around the 1022 mb 28N63W high pressure center. The same
wind conditions are from 20N northward from the cold front
eastward, around the Canary Islands high pressure center. Moderate
to fresh NW winds are to the northwest of the cold front between
the cold front and 50W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere
from 20N southward.

A high pressure of 1022 mb located near 28N63W dominates most of
the forecast region. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft
north of 27N and east of 55W will persist through tonight before
gradually subsiding on Sun. Strong to near-gale force S to SW
winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon and Mon night ahead of
the next cold front forecast to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue
morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the northwest
Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift to the southeast while
weakening by Wed. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas
will follow the front.

$$
mt/gr
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