[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024
mb high pressure system near 27N61W and lower pressures in NW
South America are resulting in strong to gale-force NE-E winds
and rough to very rough seas from 11N to 14N and between 73W and
78W, offshore Colombia. Seas are peaking around 12 ft through early
Mon morning. These conditions will be gradually diminishing Mon
through Tue as the high pressure center drifts eastward and the
pressure gradient weakens.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from SW
Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico and will be moving across the
Gulf basin through Tue morning. Behind the front, NW winds will
briefly increase to near gale-force with frequent gusts to gale-
force offshore of Mexico tonight between Brownsville and Cabo
Rojo, Mexico, and then to gale-force Mon morning off the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W. Peak seas are
expected to build to 12 ft with and behind the gale-force winds on
Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning, and move to
the southeast of the Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will
build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving
marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N16W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 03N33W and to 02N50W. A few
showers are observed near the ITCZ between 16W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico.
Widely isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident
ahead of the cold front, extending to the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are found behind the front, along with seas of
4-7 ft. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge positioned between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Fresh
to locally strong southerly winds are prevalent east of 90W. Seas
in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
southeast Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Mon morning, and
exit the basin by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough
seas will follow the front. Gale force winds are forecast off
Veracruz on Mon morning in the wake of the front. Marine
conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the
Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters.

A 1024 mb high pressure system is centered near 27N61W and extends
southward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevailing over
much of the basin, pulsing to gale-force off Colombia as discussed
in the Special Features section. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured strong to near gale-force winds in the Gulf of
Honduras. Outside of the gale-force winds, moderate to locally
rough seas prevail in the Caribbean. No deep convection is noted
on satellite imagery across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds and rough seas into Tue across the south-central
Caribbean. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the
northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into Mon night. The high
pressure will shift east through mid week ahead of a cold front
moving into the Yucatan Channel by late today. The front will
stall and start dissipating from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras by mid week. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the
wake of the front will support a new round of fresh to strong
trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean by mid week,
possibly reaching gale force off Colombia by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic.

A weak stationary cold front extends from 31N29W and continues
southwestward to 20N41W. A few showers are noted near the frontal
boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge positioned between Bermuda and the Leeward
Islands. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are found north of 28N
and west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly trade winds are present south of 23N and
west of 40W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge axis extends east to west along roughly
27N anchored by 1024 mb high pressure near 27N61W. This system
will move eastward across the central Atlantic through mid- week,
ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast late Mon night into early Tue morning. Strong to near- gale
force S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon and Mon
night ahead of the this cold front, reaching minimal gale-force
Mon night. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba
by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by late Wed, before
starting to stall and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by
late Thu.

$$
Delgado
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