[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0546 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas generated by a strong
extratropical cyclone, with hurricane force winds, located over
the central Atlantic, well N of the forecast area, continue to
propagate across the forecast waters mainly N of 26N between 45W
and 66W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are being observed in this
reach, with areas along 31N, especially between 48W and 61W,
experiencing peak seas around 16 ft. The area of 8 ft seas or
greater are N of the Greater Antilles, E of 74W, and then NW of
a line from 31N34W to 23N50W.

This swell will gradually shift eastward during the weekend
covering most of the waters N of 26N and E of 62W by Sat morning,
and N of 25N E of 56W by Sun morning. Seas are forecast to
subside below 12 ft across the waters W of 35W late Sun night.
However, rough seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will continue to
affecting most of the waters N of 15N and E of 60W through Mon.
Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days
across the central atlantic, as this swell event will maintain
hazardous marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and high pressure building over the western
Atlantic will support pulsing gale force winds and rough seas
off Colombia tonight and again Sat night. Conditions will begin
to improve by Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Liberia near 07N11.5W then continues westward to near 06N15W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 03N30W to 03N43W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are depicted along the ITCZ
between 17.5W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate
to fresh southerly return flow prevails over most of the Gulf
waters. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected
across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along
the eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is
possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late
Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to
gale-force W of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from
the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning
and move SE of the Gulf basin late Tue. High pressure will build
across the basin behind the front with quickly improving marine
conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details.

A cold front is over the NE Atlantic while its tail end is
dissipating. The dissipating portion extends through the central
Leeward Islands to near 14N63W. Seas of 8 ft are just N of the
Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the wake of the
dissipating front across the waters S of Puerto Rico. Winds
increase to fresh to strong speeds S of the Dominican Republic
to about 14N. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds are observed in the lee of Cuba,
and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating cold front will
dissipate tonight. Large N swell will continue to impact
the regional Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages tonight then
gradually become NE over the weekend before subsiding Mon. High
pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and move
slowly E-SE through Mon. This will produce fresh to strong trade
winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean
tonight, reaching gale-force off Colombia tonight and then
pulsing to gale-force again Sat night. Fresh to strong SE winds
will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and gradually
spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and Mon as the Atlantic
high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold front moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will enter the NW
Caribbean Tue night then stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wed and dissipate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the ongoing Significant Swell in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N41W then
continuous SW. It is near 20N52W where it begins to dissipate
then it crosses the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds
follow the front, particularly N of 26N and E of 59W. Rough to
very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are also seen behind the
front. A pre- frontal trough extends from 19N51W to 13N57W. High
pressure of 1025 mb located E of Florida near 29N74W dominates
the western Atlantic, and extends a ridge into the Gulf of
Mexico and western Cuba. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1021
mb high pressure is centered near 25N31W and dominates the
remainder of the forecast area. Mainly moderate trade winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Sea
increase to 6 to 8 ft NE of the Leeward Islands due to the swell
mentioned above.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will
prevail tonight across the west Atlantic N of 27N and E of 60W
behind a frontal boundary currently extending from 31N41W SW
through the Windward Islands. Rough to very rough seas in excess
of 12 ft will continue N of 26N and E of 65W through Sat before
gradually subsiding through Mon. Winds will diminish from west
to east through Sun as the front moves SE and weakens, and high
pressure currently near 30N74W slides E-SE across the area
waters. Strong S to SW winds will develop across offshore the N
Florida waters ahead of the next cold front on Mon. The front is
expected to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue morning, reach
from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift
SE and weaken quickly Wed.

$$
KRV
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