[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas generated by a strong
extratropical cyclone, with hurricane force winds, located over
the central Atlantic, well N of the forecast area, continue to
propagate across the forecast waters mainly N of 26N between 45W
and 66W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are being observed in this
reach, with areas along 31N, especially between 55W and 60W,
experiencing peak seas around 16 ft. The area of 8 ft seas are
greater are N of the Greater Antilles, E of 74W, and then NW of a
line from 31N35W to 18N61W.


This swell will gradually shift eastward during the weekend
covering most of the waters N of 26N and E of 62W by Sat morning,
and N of 25N E of 56W by Sun morning. Seas are forecast to
subside below 12 ft across the waters W of 35W Sun night.
However, rough seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will continue to
affecting most of the waters N of 15N and E of 60W through Mon.
Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across
the central atlantic, as this swell event will maintain hazardous
marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic
will support pulsing gale force winds and rough seas off Colombia
tonight and again Sat night. Conditions will begin to improve by
Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Liberia near 07N11W then continues westward to near 06N22W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 02N35W to 02N50W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate
to fresh southerly return flow prevails over most of the Gulf
waters. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected
across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the
eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible
over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of
a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun.
Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W
of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and move SE of
the Gulf basin late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin
behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details.

A cold front is over the NE Caribbean,and extends through the
central Leeward Islands to near 16N68W. Seas of 8 ft are just N of
the Leeward Islands. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate
moderate to fresh N winds in the wake of the front across the
waters S of Puerto Rico. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds
S of Dominican Republic to about 14N. Seas are 7 to 8 ft within
these winds. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are observed in
the lee of Cuba, and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate
by Sat morning. Large N swell will impact the regional Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages tonight then gradually become NE
over the weekend before subsiding Mon. High pressure will prevail
across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through Mon. This
will produce fresh to strong trade winds and building seas over
the south-central Caribbean tonight, reaching gale-force off
Colombia tonight and then pulsing to gale-force again Sat night.
Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras
Sat night and gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and
Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and
a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front
will enter the NW Caribbean Tue night then stall from central Cuba
to the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed and dissipate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
ongoing Significant Swell in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N44W then continues
SW crossing the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds follow the
front, particularly N of 26N and E of 60W. Rough to very rough
seas in excess of 12 ft are also seen behind the front. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 20N52W to near Barbados in the
Windward Islands. High pressure of 1024 mb located E of Florida
near 29N74W dominates the western Atlantic, and extends a ridge
into the Gulf of Mexico and western Cuba. Elsewhere across the
Atlantic, a 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 25N30W and
dominates the remainder of the forecast area. Mainly moderate
trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the tropical
Atlantic. Sea heights increase to 6 to 8 ft NE of the Leeward
Islands due to the swell mentioned above.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will
prevail tonight across the west Atlantic N of 26N and E of 60W
behind a frontal boundary currently extending from 20N55W SW
through the central Leeward Islands. Rough to very rough seas in
excess of 12 ft will continue N of 26N and E of 65W through Sat
before gradually subsiding through Mon. Winds will diminish from
west to east through Sun as the front moves SE and weakens, and
high pressure currently near 30N74W slides E-SE across the area
waters. Strong S to SW winds will develop across offshore the N
Florida waters ahead of the next cold front on Mon. The front is
expected to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue morning, reach from
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE and
weaken quickly Wed.

$$
Konarik
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