[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas generated by a strong
extratropical cyclone, with hurricane force winds, located over
the central Atlantic, well N of the forecast area, continue to
propagate across the forecast waters mainly N of 26N between 50W
and 66W. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 12 to 13 ft
near 65W. Seas 8 ft or greater dominate a large area N of a line
from 30N35W to 25N50W to 19N64W to 22N72W to 25N75W to 31N72W.
This swell event will gradually shift eastward during the weekend
covering most of the waters N of 27N and E of 62W by Sat morning,
and N of 26N E of 55W by Sun morning. Seas are forecast to subside
below 12 ft across the waters W of 35W by Sun nigh. However,
rough seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will continue to affecting
most of the waters N of 15N and E of 60W Sun night into Mon.
Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across
the central atlantic, as this swell event will maintain hazardous
marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic
will support pulsing minimal gale force winds and rough seas off
Colombia tonight, and again Sat night. Conditions will begin to
improve by Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Liberia near 06.5N11W then continues westward to near 06N22W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 02N35W to 02N50W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate
to fresh southerly return flow prevails over most of the Gulf
waters, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the far
NE part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3
ft over the E Gulf N of the Florida Keys. Patches of low level
moisture are noted moving northward under the SE to S wind flow.
These low clouds are more concentrated over the Yucatan Channel
and the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected
across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the
eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible
over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late Sat, ahead of
a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun.
Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W
of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and move SE of
the Gulf basin late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details.

A cold front is over the NE Caribbean, and extends through the
central Leewards Islands to near 16N68W. Seas of 8 ft are just N
of the Leeward Islands based on altimeter data. Recent satellite
derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh N winds in the wake
of the front across the waters S of Puerto Rico. Winds increase to
fresh to strong speeds S of Dominican Republic to about 14N. Seas
are 7 to 8 ft within these winds. Fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds are observed in the lee of Cuba, and between eastern Cuba
and Jamaica. Abundant stratocumulus clouds are noted on satellite
imagery over the NW Caribbean. A broken band of low clouds with
possible light showers is associated with the front. The southern
of a pre-frontal trough extends to near Barbados where some shower
activity has been reported.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and
dissipate through tonight. Large northerly swell will impact
Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean today then gradually become
NE over the weekend before subsiding Mon. High pressure will
prevail across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through
Mon. This will produce fresh to strong trade winds and building
seas over the south-central Caribbean by tonight, reaching gale-
force off Colombia tonight and then pulse to gale-force again Sat
night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the Gulf of
Honduras Sat night and gradually spread through the Yucatan
Channel Sun and Mon as the Atlantic high shifts SE into the
central Atlantic and a cold front moves across the western Gulf of
Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
ongoing Significant Swell event in Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N47W then continues
SW crossing the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds follow the
front, particularly N of 25N and E of 65W. Rough to very rough
seas in excess of 12 ft are also seen behind the front. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 20N52W to near Barbados in the
Windward Islands. The trough is very well defined on scatterometer
data. High pressure of 1025 mb located E of Florida near 29N76W
dominates the western Atlantic, and extends a ridge into the Gulf
of Mexico and western Cuba. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1020
mb high pressure is centered near 25N30W and dominates the
remainder of the forecast area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Sea
heights increase to 6 to 8 ft NE of the Leeward Islands due to the
swell event mentioned above.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will
prevail today across the west Atlantic N of 25N and E of 65W
behind a frontal boundary currently extending from 23N55W SW
through the central Leeward Islands. Rough to very rough seas in
excess of 12 ft will continue N of 26N and E of 66W through
tonight. Winds will diminish from west to east through Sun as the
front moves SE and weakens, and high pressure currently along the
E coast of the U.S. slides E-SE along 27N-28N and into the area
waters. Strong S to SW winds will develop across offshore the N
Florida waters ahead of the next cold front on Mon. The front is
expected to exit the SE U.S. and N Florida Tue morning and reach
from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by Tue evening.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net