[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100950
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas generated by a strong
extratropical cyclone, with hurricane force winds, located over
the central Atlantic well N of the forecast area, continue to
propagate across the forecast waters mainly N of 26N between 40W
and 65W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are noted in this area, peaking
to around 16 ft. The area of 8 ft seas or greater are N of the
Greater Antilles, E of 73W, and then NW of a line from 31N34W to
18N61W. This swell will gradually shift eastward during the
weekend, with seas forecast to subside below 12 ft across the
waters W of 35W on Sun night. However, rough seas in the 8 to 11
ft range, will continue to affecting most of the waters N of 15N
and E of 60W through Mon. Mariners are urged exercise caution over
the next few days across the central atlantic, as this swell
event will maintain hazardous marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and high pressure building over the western
Atlantic will support pulsing gale force winds and rough seas
off Colombia tonight. Conditions will begin to improve by Sun
morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Liberia near 07N11W then continues westward to near 06N18W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate
convection are noted along the ITCZ between 20W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into
the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate
to fresh southerly return flow prevails over most of the Gulf
waters. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected across
the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the
eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible
over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by tonight, ahead of
a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind
the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W
on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and move SE of the
Gulf basin late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin
behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong E winds prevail across
the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh E winds are noted
elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for
rough seas over the central portion. An area of strong NE winds
is noted in the lee of Cuba, between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, large N swell will continue to impact the
regional Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages today then
gradually become NE over the weekend before subsiding on Mon. High
pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and move slowly
E-SE through Mon. Gale force winds over the waters N of Colombia
will weaken this morning, then pulse again tonight. Fresh to
strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over the central
Caribbean through early next week, while gentle to moderate E
winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong SE
winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and
gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and Mon as the
Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold
front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will
enter the NW Caribbean Tue night then stall from central Cuba to
the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed and dissipate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
the ongoing Significant Swell in the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1023 mb high is analyzed across the western Atlantic near
29N74W. To the east, a cold front enters the forecast region near
31N40W to 20N51W. Fresh to strong winds follow the front,
particularly N of 27N and E of 58W. Rough to very rough seas in
excess of 12 ft are behind the front. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 19N49W to 13N56W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 25N29W and dominates the
remainder of the forecast area. Moderate trade winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Seas increase to
6 to 8 ft NE of the Leeward Islands due to the swell mentioned
above.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will prevail
today across the west Atlantic N of 27N and E of 58W behind the
frontal boundary. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft
will continue N of 26N and E of 65W through today before gradually
subsiding on Mon. Winds will diminish from west to east through
Sun as the front moves SE and weakens, and high pressure currently
near 30N74W slides E-SE across the area waters. Strong S to SW
winds will develop across offshore the N Florida waters ahead of
the next cold front on Mon. The front is expected to exit the SE
U.S. and N Florida Tue morning, reach from near Bermuda to the NW
Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE and weaken quickly Wed.

$$
ERA
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