[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090448
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 09 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0544 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell: A 983 mb low pressure centered near
37N55W continues to move northeast away from our waters. A cold
front enters the area near 31N51W and extends southwest to the
Mona Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring north of
24N east of the front to 42W. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail
west of the cold front. Large N swell with seas of 12-18 ft and
a period of 10-12 seconds is forecast to persist north of 25N
between 49W and 70W. Seas are 8 ft or greater across the
Atlantic west of 65W, including near Atlantic exposures of the
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. This area of significant
swell will gradually shift northeastward through the weekend.
Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days
across the western and central atlantic, as this swell event
will maintain hazardous marine conditions.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between lower
pressure over South America and higher pressure building over
the Atlantic will support pulsing near-gale to gale force winds
and rough seas off Colombia on Fri night and Sat night.
conditions will begin to improve Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N11W to
06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 03N48W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate SE return flow prevails over the Gulf of
Mexico with E fresh winds just north of Yucatan. Seas are 5-7 ft
in the waters west of 90W, and 3-5 ft in the waters east of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected
across the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along
the eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is
possible over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by late
Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to
gale-force W of 95W on Mon. The front is expected to reach from
the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning
and reach the SE Gulf Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean.

A surface trough extends across the Lesser Antilles from 16N60W
southwestward to 14N61W. Winds behind the trough are N to NE
moderate to fresh with seas of 6-7 ft. A cold front enters the
Caribbean through the Mona Passage and continues east-
southeastward to 17N71W. N to NE winds through the Mona and
Windward Passages are fresh to strong with seas of 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move SE and
dissipate through Fri evening. Moderate WNW swell in the central
Caribbean will reach the eastern Caribbean tonight. Large
northerly swell will impact Atlantic passages of the NE
Caribbean through Fri then gradually become NE over the weekend
before subsiding Mon. High pressure will enter the western
Atlantic tonight and move slowly E-SE through Mon. This will
produce fresh to strong trade winds and building seas over the
south-central Caribbean by late Fri, reaching gale-force off
Colombia by Fri night and then pulse to gale-force again Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the ongoing
Significant Swell event in the W Atlantic.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a 1020 mb high is centered near
24N30W with ridging extending westward to 25N48W and eastward to
30N18W. Between the high/ridge and the ITCZ, the trades are
gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft. North of the high/ridge to
31N W winds are fresh to strong with seas 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong NW winds will prevail
tonight across the west Atlantic behind a frontal boundary
currently E of 60W, extending SW into the NE and E Caribbean.
Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will continue N of
25N and E of 70W tonight then gradually lift N of 27N and E of
65W Fri. Winds will diminish from west to east through Sun as
the front moves SE and weaken and high pressure slides E-SE
along 27N-28N and into the area waters. Strong S to SW will
develop across offshore N FL waters ahead of the next cold front
on Mon.

$$
KRV
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